How Kunkafa’s forecasts turned out, updated daily
Every morning we count how past forecasts ended, across every market and every duration the pipeline publishes, at the strength the app uses by default (75%). Updated 7 September 2026.
Same definitions as the app’s record. Past results do not promise future ones. Up and down both remain possible.
By window
| Window | Forecasts evaluated | Strong enough | Finished in the forecast direction | Reached the level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last day | 140,652 | 46,647 · 33% | 85% | 84% |
| Last 7 days | 8,793,092 | 3,158,980 · 36% | 84% | 83% |
| Last 30 days | 9,876,426 | 3,261,235 · 33% | 84% | 83% |
| All time | 9,876,426 | 3,261,235 · 33% | 84% | 83% |
By forecast strength
The stricter the filter, the fewer forecasts it counts and, usually, the higher the rate. How selective you are matters more than the rate itself.
| Strength at least | Forecasts | Finished in the forecast direction | Reached the level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | 9,314,058 | 79% | 75% |
| 10% | 8,954,015 | 79% | 76% |
| 15% | 8,648,635 | 80% | 77% |
| 20% | 8,309,575 | 80% | 77% |
| 25% | 7,955,240 | 81% | 78% |
| 30% | 7,644,396 | 81% | 79% |
| 35% | 7,273,395 | 82% | 80% |
| 40% | 6,872,236 | 82% | 80% |
| 45% | 6,441,560 | 83% | 81% |
| 50% | 5,952,252 | 83% | 82% |
| 55% | 5,449,321 | 83% | 82% |
| 60% | 4,939,704 | 84% | 82% |
| 65% | 4,404,924 | 84% | 83% |
| 70% | 3,852,216 | 84% | 82% |
| 75% | 3,261,235 | 84% | 83% |
| 80% | 2,650,676 | 84% | 83% |
| 85% | 1,966,834 | 84% | 83% |
| 90% | 1,166,386 | 84% | 84% |
| 95% | 251,760 | 86% | 86% |
How to read this
- Forecasts evaluated: every forecast made in the window, whether it was strong or not.
- Strong enough: the ones at or above the strength shown, and their share of all forecasts.
- Finished in the forecast direction: of those, how many ended on the side they forecast at the close of their own duration.
- Reached the level: of those, how many touched the forecast level at some point within their duration.
- Under 100 finished examples a window shows no rate: “Not enough past examples to estimate performance reliably.”
- A rate under 1% reads “under 1%”.
Definitions in full, and where the chance comes from, on the how it works page. The raw figures are published at /api/stats.json.