Full report · 4 September to 30 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Brent oil, 4 September to 30 October

Prepared November 2, 2026 · Report data

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Every Brent oil forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This report takes every Brent oil price forecast Kunkafa published from Friday 4 September to Friday 30 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 30,744 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more10.1%
  2. went 200 to 300%8.5%
  3. went 125 to 200%26.1%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level50.6%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.1%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.2%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.1%
  8. went under 25%1.3%
of the forecasted distance
        

30,744 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 25 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above30,744 forecasts
        
10.1%300%+
8.5%200–300%
26.1%125–200%
50.6%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
1.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%246,829 forecasts
        
10.9%300%+
11.3%200–300%
30.0%125–200%
33.1%100–125%
2.7%75–99%
2.9%50–75%
3.2%25–50%
5.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%219,002 forecasts
        
5.8%300%+
8.0%200–300%
26.0%125–200%
41.9%100–125%
3.7%75–99%
3.7%50–75%
5.1%25–50%
5.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%224,185 forecasts
        
6.4%300%+
7.1%200–300%
25.9%125–200%
38.7%100–125%
3.5%75–99%
5.2%50–75%
6.4%25–50%
6.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%183,229 forecasts
        
5.1%300%+
6.9%200–300%
21.3%125–200%
43.1%100–125%
3.6%75–99%
4.0%50–75%
6.2%25–50%
9.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%165,663 forecasts
        
3.8%300%+
5.3%200–300%
19.6%125–200%
47.3%100–125%
4.3%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.7%25–50%
10.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%153,236 forecasts
        
4.1%300%+
5.3%200–300%
18.8%125–200%
47.9%100–125%
4.8%75–99%
5.2%50–75%
6.8%25–50%
7.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%152,342 forecasts
        
4.1%300%+
5.7%200–300%
18.1%125–200%
46.5%100–125%
4.9%75–99%
5.2%50–75%
7.7%25–50%
7.8%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the 40 days.

▲ Could rise16,989 forecasts
        
8.5%300%+
8.1%200–300%
26.0%125–200%
52.9%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
1.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall13,755 forecasts
        
11.9%300%+
9.1%200–300%
26.2%125–200%
47.8%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
1.4%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 25 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes2,553 forecasts
        
54.8%300%+
16.3%200–300%
14.6%125–200%
5.2%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
2.4%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
3.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes2,431 forecasts
        
28.3%300%+
22.3%200–300%
28.6%125–200%
11.4%100–125%
2.3%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.5%25–50%
2.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour2,356 forecasts
        
9.4%300%+
17.3%200–300%
40.3%125–200%
24.5%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
2.1%25–50%
2.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours368 forecasts
        
15.2%300%+
22.8%200–300%
34.2%125–200%
13.9%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
3.8%50–75%
3.0%25–50%
3.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours2,980 forecasts
        
4.2%300%+
9.0%200–300%
39.5%125–200%
40.4%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
1.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day5,496 forecasts
        
4.2%300%+
6.2%200–300%
35.5%125–200%
49.6%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days513 forecasts
        
4.5%300%+
5.5%200–300%
27.5%125–200%
56.9%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
0.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days4,471 forecasts
        
4.5%300%+
4.7%200–300%
24.9%125–200%
62.8%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
0.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days8,460 forecasts
        
1.7%300%+
3.6%200–300%
14.0%125–200%
79.5%100–125%
0.3%75–99%
0.3%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
0.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 days1,116 forecasts
        
0.5%300%+
2.2%200–300%
27.9%125–200%
68.5%100–125%
0.4%75–99%
0.4%50–75%
0.1%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 50 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Friday to Friday.

Fri 4
1
Mon 7
64
Tue 8
87
Wed 9
282
Fri 11
2,210
Mon 14
32
Tue 15
677
Wed 16
116
Thu 17
1,465
Fri 18
4,169
Mon 21
2,118
Tue 22
1,725
Wed 23
430
Thu 24
1,352
Fri 25
1,126
Mon 28
727
Tue 29
738
Wed 30
475
Thu 1
852
Fri 2
1,039
Mon 5
611
Tue 6
639
Wed 7
578
Thu 8
1,162
Fri 9
1,222
Mon 12
329
Tue 13
645
Wed 14
177
Thu 15
457
Fri 16
651
Mon 19
836
Tue 20
628
Wed 21
646
Thu 22
72
Fri 23
852
Mon 26
425
Tue 27
482
Wed 28
155
Thu 29
328
Fri 30
164
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the period, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 3,091 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-23 19:00 UTC
Price
99.21
Forecasted level
99.87
Distance
0.67%
Furthest move
2.29%
Confidence
96%
341% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 2,622 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 25 days · 2026-09-16 07:30 UTC
Price
104.36
Forecasted level
103.19
Distance
1.12%
Furthest move
2.24%
Confidence
96%
200% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 8,024 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-21 19:45 UTC
Price
97.14
Forecasted level
99.95
Distance
2.89%
Furthest move
4.46%
Confidence
95%
155% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 15,559 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-24 13:00 UTC
Price
100.70
Forecasted level
98.94
Distance
1.75%
Furthest move
1.95%
Confidence
95%
111% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 341 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-25 00:10 UTC
Price
100.31
Forecasted level
101.52
Distance
1.21%
Furthest move
1.16%
Confidence
95%
95% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 360 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-07 11:00 UTC
Price
96.17
Forecasted level
94.62
Distance
1.61%
Furthest move
0.81%
Confidence
95%
50% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 343 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-17 08:15 UTC
Price
101.88
Forecasted level
102.38
Distance
0.49%
Furthest move
0.19%
Confidence
95%
37% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 404 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-07 09:00 UTC
Price
95.54
Forecasted level
94.07
Distance
1.54%
Furthest move
0.32%
Confidence
96%
20% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Brent oil forecasts, opened between 4 September and 30 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

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