Weekly report · 21 to 25 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Brent oil, 21 to 25 September

Prepared September 28, 2026 · Report data

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Every Brent oil forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every Brent oil price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 21 to Friday 25 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 3,200 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more19.8%
  2. went 200 to 300%13.0%
  3. went 125 to 200%31.1%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level29.5%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.6%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.8%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.6%
  8. went under 25%1.6%
of the forecasted distance
        

3,200 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above3,200 forecasts
        
19.8%300%+
13.0%200–300%
31.1%125–200%
29.5%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
1.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%32,580 forecasts
        
12.3%300%+
12.7%200–300%
30.1%125–200%
31.8%100–125%
3.0%75–99%
3.0%50–75%
3.0%25–50%
4.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%27,592 forecasts
        
7.4%300%+
9.9%200–300%
27.9%125–200%
35.9%100–125%
4.3%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.6%25–50%
5.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%25,678 forecasts
        
7.4%300%+
9.0%200–300%
26.7%125–200%
35.9%100–125%
4.6%75–99%
4.6%50–75%
4.9%25–50%
6.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%20,300 forecasts
        
6.8%300%+
9.1%200–300%
25.7%125–200%
36.9%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
5.1%25–50%
7.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%16,300 forecasts
        
5.1%300%+
8.0%200–300%
24.7%125–200%
39.5%100–125%
4.7%75–99%
4.7%50–75%
5.5%25–50%
7.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%15,018 forecasts
        
5.7%300%+
7.5%200–300%
24.0%125–200%
40.1%100–125%
4.9%75–99%
5.3%50–75%
5.7%25–50%
6.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%15,687 forecasts
        
5.1%300%+
9.0%200–300%
24.6%125–200%
36.4%100–125%
5.6%75–99%
6.2%50–75%
6.0%25–50%
7.1%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the five days.

▲ Could rise1,411 forecasts
        
16.4%300%+
11.5%200–300%
31.8%125–200%
32.3%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
2.1%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
2.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall1,789 forecasts
        
22.5%300%+
14.1%200–300%
30.5%125–200%
27.3%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
1.2%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes473 forecasts
        
57.5%300%+
15.6%200–300%
13.5%125–200%
5.7%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
2.8%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
3.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes513 forecasts
        
33.9%300%+
20.7%200–300%
25.1%125–200%
11.5%100–125%
2.0%75–99%
2.1%50–75%
2.9%25–50%
1.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour488 forecasts
        
13.7%300%+
18.4%200–300%
35.5%125–200%
23.6%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
2.7%25–50%
2.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours109 forecasts
        
18.3%300%+
24.8%200–300%
38.5%125–200%
7.3%100–125%
2.8%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
2.8%25–50%
3.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours589 forecasts
        
7.3%300%+
11.7%200–300%
40.1%125–200%
36.3%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
0.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day982 forecasts
        
5.5%300%+
5.0%200–300%
34.0%125–200%
50.4%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
0.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days46 forecasts
        
6.5%300%+
2.2%200–300%
34.8%125–200%
56.5%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Friday.

Mon 21
606
Tue 22
1,081
Wed 23
189
Thu 24
849
Fri 25
475
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 633 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-22 13:45 UTC
Price
95.68
Forecasted level
96.21
Distance
0.56%
Furthest move
1.79%
Confidence
96%
321% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 416 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-25 16:20 UTC
Price
98.11
Forecasted level
97.79
Distance
0.32%
Furthest move
0.89%
Confidence
95%
276% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 994 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-21 00:35 UTC
Price
99.25
Forecasted level
99.92
Distance
0.67%
Furthest move
0.87%
Confidence
95%
130% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 944 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-24 17:40 UTC
Price
102.00
Forecasted level
101.43
Distance
0.56%
Furthest move
0.64%
Confidence
96%
114% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 51 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-22 08:15 UTC
Price
98.24
Forecasted level
98.59
Distance
0.36%
Furthest move
0.34%
Confidence
96%
93% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 58 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-22 10:08 UTC
Price
94.65
Forecasted level
94.35
Distance
0.31%
Furthest move
0.20%
Confidence
96%
65% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 51 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-22 08:40 UTC
Price
97.20
Forecasted level
97.59
Distance
0.40%
Furthest move
0.19%
Confidence
96%
48% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 53 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-25 16:15 UTC
Price
97.28
Forecasted level
96.98
Distance
0.30%
Furthest move
0.07%
Confidence
96%
24% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Brent oil forecasts, opened between 21 and 25 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 25 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s Brent oil forecasts

Other Brent oil reports