Weekly report · 12 to 16 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Brent oil, 12 to 16 October

Prepared October 19, 2026 · Report data

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Every Brent oil forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every Brent oil price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 12 to Friday 16 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 1,912 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more13.6%
  2. went 200 to 300%11.9%
  3. went 125 to 200%35.1%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level35.1%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.1%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.0%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.0%
  8. went under 25%1.2%
of the forecasted distance
        

1,912 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 1 day.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above1,912 forecasts
        
13.6%300%+
11.9%200–300%
35.1%125–200%
35.1%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
1.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%29,400 forecasts
        
11.8%300%+
12.8%200–300%
32.0%125–200%
30.7%100–125%
2.9%75–99%
3.0%50–75%
2.9%25–50%
3.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%24,449 forecasts
        
5.5%300%+
8.8%200–300%
30.2%125–200%
38.3%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
3.9%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
5.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%22,610 forecasts
        
7.6%300%+
9.4%200–300%
29.0%125–200%
35.6%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
5.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%17,409 forecasts
        
6.5%300%+
9.6%200–300%
27.1%125–200%
37.4%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
5.0%25–50%
6.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%15,358 forecasts
        
5.1%300%+
7.5%200–300%
25.1%125–200%
42.5%100–125%
4.6%75–99%
4.8%50–75%
5.0%25–50%
5.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%14,951 forecasts
        
5.7%300%+
8.1%200–300%
25.3%125–200%
38.6%100–125%
5.3%75–99%
5.1%50–75%
5.4%25–50%
6.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%14,159 forecasts
        
5.3%300%+
8.4%200–300%
26.2%125–200%
35.9%100–125%
5.1%75–99%
6.0%50–75%
6.0%25–50%
7.1%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the five days.

▲ Could rise1,447 forecasts
        
12.5%300%+
12.2%200–300%
36.8%125–200%
36.2%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
0.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall465 forecasts
        
17.2%300%+
11.0%200–300%
29.7%125–200%
31.6%100–125%
2.8%75–99%
1.9%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
3.4%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to a day. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes295 forecasts
        
51.9%300%+
14.2%200–300%
18.6%125–200%
5.1%100–125%
2.7%75–99%
3.4%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
1.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes269 forecasts
        
24.9%300%+
20.5%200–300%
33.8%125–200%
11.9%100–125%
2.3%75–99%
2.2%50–75%
2.2%25–50%
2.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour213 forecasts
        
7.5%300%+
20.2%200–300%
41.8%125–200%
23.5%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
3.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours52 forecasts
        
21.2%300%+
30.8%200–300%
21.1%125–200%
23.1%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours284 forecasts
        
3.2%300%+
8.4%200–300%
41.9%125–200%
42.6%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
0.4%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
1.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day799 forecasts
        
0.6%300%+
5.9%200–300%
38.3%125–200%
55.2%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Friday.

Mon 12
278
Tue 13
453
Wed 14
132
Thu 15
418
Fri 16
631
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 261 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-16 16:00 UTC
Price
105.85
Forecasted level
106.07
Distance
0.21%
Furthest move
0.85%
Confidence
96%
411% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 227 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-12 09:26 UTC
Price
103.79
Forecasted level
103.59
Distance
0.19%
Furthest move
0.39%
Confidence
96%
208% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 671 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-16 16:10 UTC
Price
105.85
Forecasted level
106.23
Distance
0.36%
Furthest move
0.66%
Confidence
96%
183% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 671 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-12 14:15 UTC
Price
105.42
Forecasted level
104.95
Distance
0.44%
Furthest move
0.48%
Confidence
95%
108% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 21 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-14 11:23 UTC
Price
105.01
Forecasted level
105.16
Distance
0.14%
Furthest move
0.13%
Confidence
95%
90% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 19 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-12 09:29 UTC
Price
103.85
Forecasted level
103.76
Distance
0.09%
Furthest move
0.04%
Confidence
96%
50% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 19 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 2 hours · 2026-10-15 15:20 UTC
Price
104.87
Forecasted level
104.99
Distance
0.11%
Furthest move
0.05%
Confidence
95%
48% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 23 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-12 12:10 UTC
Price
104.33
Forecasted level
104.13
Distance
0.19%
Furthest move
0.05%
Confidence
95%
24% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Brent oil forecasts, opened between 12 and 16 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 16 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s Brent oil forecasts

Other Brent oil reports