Weekly report · 28 September to 2 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Brent oil, 28 September to 2 October

Prepared October 5, 2026 · Report data

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Every Brent oil forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every Brent oil price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 28 September to Friday 2 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 2,979 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more17.0%
  2. went 200 to 300%14.1%
  3. went 125 to 200%33.1%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level28.9%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.4%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.8%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.8%
  8. went under 25%1.9%
of the forecasted distance
        

2,979 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 1 day.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above2,979 forecasts
        
17.0%300%+
14.1%200–300%
33.1%125–200%
28.9%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
1.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%31,677 forecasts
        
12.6%300%+
12.9%200–300%
31.4%125–200%
30.2%100–125%
3.1%75–99%
3.0%50–75%
3.0%25–50%
3.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%27,487 forecasts
        
7.5%300%+
9.8%200–300%
29.4%125–200%
35.4%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.1%50–75%
4.2%25–50%
5.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%24,665 forecasts
        
8.0%300%+
9.0%200–300%
27.9%125–200%
35.7%100–125%
4.4%75–99%
4.6%50–75%
4.6%25–50%
5.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%18,338 forecasts
        
7.3%300%+
9.1%200–300%
27.4%125–200%
38.1%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
4.4%25–50%
5.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%16,652 forecasts
        
5.9%300%+
8.3%200–300%
26.5%125–200%
39.5%100–125%
4.9%75–99%
5.0%50–75%
4.6%25–50%
5.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%16,191 forecasts
        
6.3%300%+
7.9%200–300%
26.3%125–200%
36.9%100–125%
5.6%75–99%
5.5%50–75%
5.2%25–50%
6.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%15,385 forecasts
        
6.0%300%+
8.2%200–300%
26.2%125–200%
34.8%100–125%
5.4%75–99%
5.9%50–75%
6.0%25–50%
7.5%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the five days.

▲ Could rise2,045 forecasts
        
14.8%300%+
15.2%200–300%
33.3%125–200%
30.3%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
1.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall934 forecasts
        
21.7%300%+
11.7%200–300%
32.7%125–200%
25.7%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
2.2%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
2.1%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to a day. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes495 forecasts
        
60.2%300%+
14.2%200–300%
12.5%125–200%
4.1%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
2.4%50–75%
2.2%25–50%
2.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes516 forecasts
        
24.4%300%+
25.4%200–300%
29.5%125–200%
11.6%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
2.1%50–75%
2.7%25–50%
2.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour539 forecasts
        
5.2%300%+
17.1%200–300%
41.2%125–200%
28.4%100–125%
2.0%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
2.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours51 forecasts
        
9.8%300%+
19.6%200–300%
41.2%125–200%
13.7%100–125%
2.0%75–99%
5.9%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
3.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours519 forecasts
        
3.7%300%+
9.4%200–300%
40.5%125–200%
36.0%100–125%
2.5%75–99%
2.7%50–75%
2.3%25–50%
2.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day859 forecasts
        
3.4%300%+
7.9%200–300%
37.3%125–200%
50.4%100–125%
0.2%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.1%25–50%
0.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Friday.

Mon 28
430
Tue 29
738
Wed 30
197
Thu 1
796
Fri 2
818
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 505 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 2 hours · 2026-09-28 17:10 UTC
Price
96.52
Forecasted level
96.69
Distance
0.18%
Furthest move
1.11%
Confidence
95%
608% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 420 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-28 16:13 UTC
Price
99.78
Forecasted level
99.38
Distance
0.40%
Furthest move
0.80%
Confidence
96%
201% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 987 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-30 10:25 UTC
Price
97.21
Forecasted level
97.62
Distance
0.42%
Furthest move
0.61%
Confidence
96%
145% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 860 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-02 11:10 UTC
Price
99.69
Forecasted level
99.03
Distance
0.65%
Furthest move
0.77%
Confidence
95%
118% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 43 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-29 07:33 UTC
Price
98.77
Forecasted level
99.07
Distance
0.31%
Furthest move
0.24%
Confidence
95%
77% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 53 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-02 15:20 UTC
Price
100.34
Forecasted level
99.69
Distance
0.64%
Furthest move
0.37%
Confidence
95%
58% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 53 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-01 17:55 UTC
Price
102.54
Forecasted level
102.84
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
0.10%
Confidence
96%
32% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 58 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-02 16:15 UTC
Price
100.87
Forecasted level
100.17
Distance
0.69%
Furthest move
0.16%
Confidence
95%
23% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Brent oil forecasts, opened between 28 September and 2 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 2 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s Brent oil forecasts

Other Brent oil reports