Monthly report · 4 to 30 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Brent oil, 4 to 30 September

Prepared October 1, 2026 · Report data

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Every Brent oil forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This monthly report takes every Brent oil price forecast Kunkafa published from Friday 4 to Wednesday 30 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 13,741 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more7.7%
  2. went 200 to 300%6.4%
  3. went 125 to 200%19.9%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level61.8%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.9%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.1%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.0%
  8. went under 25%1.2%
of the forecasted distance
        

13,741 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 12 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above13,741 forecasts
        
7.7%300%+
6.4%200–300%
19.9%125–200%
61.8%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
1.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%87,563 forecasts
        
10.3%300%+
10.5%200–300%
29.7%125–200%
30.5%100–125%
2.7%75–99%
2.8%50–75%
3.7%25–50%
9.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%75,940 forecasts
        
6.0%300%+
8.1%200–300%
24.2%125–200%
37.4%100–125%
3.9%75–99%
4.1%50–75%
7.7%25–50%
8.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%89,618 forecasts
        
5.8%300%+
5.7%200–300%
26.7%125–200%
31.3%100–125%
3.3%75–99%
7.4%50–75%
10.3%25–50%
9.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%70,208 forecasts
        
4.8%300%+
6.7%200–300%
18.0%125–200%
35.2%100–125%
3.2%75–99%
4.6%50–75%
9.6%25–50%
17.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%57,804 forecasts
        
3.4%300%+
5.2%200–300%
17.6%125–200%
37.0%100–125%
4.7%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
6.0%25–50%
21.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%50,134 forecasts
        
3.8%300%+
5.0%200–300%
17.9%125–200%
39.7%100–125%
5.5%75–99%
6.2%50–75%
11.1%25–50%
10.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%53,927 forecasts
        
4.3%300%+
6.0%200–300%
17.0%125–200%
38.7%100–125%
4.7%75–99%
5.5%50–75%
12.0%25–50%
11.8%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the eighteen days.

▲ Could rise8,519 forecasts
        
5.7%300%+
5.9%200–300%
20.2%125–200%
64.7%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
1.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall5,222 forecasts
        
11.0%300%+
7.1%200–300%
19.6%125–200%
57.0%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
1.4%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 12 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes866 forecasts
        
55.3%300%+
16.1%200–300%
14.7%125–200%
5.2%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
2.5%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
3.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes910 forecasts
        
29.8%300%+
22.6%200–300%
27.0%125–200%
12.1%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.7%25–50%
2.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour967 forecasts
        
9.8%300%+
17.3%200–300%
40.0%125–200%
24.5%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
2.1%25–50%
2.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours145 forecasts
        
16.5%300%+
24.8%200–300%
41.4%125–200%
7.6%100–125%
2.1%75–99%
2.1%50–75%
2.1%25–50%
3.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours1,094 forecasts
        
6.5%300%+
8.9%200–300%
41.1%125–200%
38.9%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day1,899 forecasts
        
4.9%300%+
7.0%200–300%
34.8%125–200%
49.2%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
1.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days364 forecasts
        
1.4%300%+
4.9%200–300%
26.9%125–200%
60.2%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
2.2%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days2,036 forecasts
        
0.8%300%+
2.5%200–300%
20.5%125–200%
71.1%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.9%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
0.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days5,460 forecasts
        
0.1%300%+
0.5%200–300%
5.4%125–200%
92.6%100–125%
0.3%75–99%
0.3%50–75%
0.4%25–50%
0.4%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Friday to Wednesday.

Fri 4
1
Mon 7
9
Tue 8
2
Wed 9
158
Fri 11
2,164
Mon 14
23
Tue 15
563
Wed 16
81
Thu 17
1,278
Fri 18
4,034
Mon 21
866
Tue 22
1,632
Wed 23
254
Thu 24
850
Fri 25
475
Mon 28
430
Tue 29
738
Wed 30
183
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the month, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 1,060 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-22 13:45 UTC
Price
95.68
Forecasted level
96.21
Distance
0.56%
Furthest move
1.79%
Confidence
96%
321% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 873 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-14 19:00 UTC
Price
103.55
Forecasted level
102.43
Distance
1.08%
Furthest move
2.40%
Confidence
96%
221% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 2,737 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-23 04:15 UTC
Price
95.03
Forecasted level
95.75
Distance
0.75%
Furthest move
0.95%
Confidence
95%
127% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 8,486 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-16 10:00 UTC
Price
104.21
Forecasted level
102.80
Distance
1.36%
Furthest move
1.57%
Confidence
95%
116% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 130 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-17 07:20 UTC
Price
101.17
Forecasted level
102.22
Distance
1.04%
Furthest move
0.93%
Confidence
95%
89% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 153 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-07 11:00 UTC
Price
96.17
Forecasted level
94.62
Distance
1.61%
Furthest move
0.81%
Confidence
95%
50% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 143 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-17 08:15 UTC
Price
101.88
Forecasted level
102.38
Distance
0.49%
Furthest move
0.19%
Confidence
95%
37% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 159 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-07 09:00 UTC
Price
95.54
Forecasted level
94.07
Distance
1.54%
Furthest move
0.32%
Confidence
96%
20% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Brent oil forecasts, opened between 4 and 30 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this month’s Brent oil forecasts

Other Brent oil reports