Monthly report · 1 to 30 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Brent oil, 1 to 30 October

Prepared November 1, 2026 · Report data

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Every Brent oil forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This monthly report takes every Brent oil price forecast Kunkafa published from Thursday 1 to Friday 30 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 12,839 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more14.8%
  2. went 200 to 300%12.1%
  3. went 125 to 200%31.1%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level35.4%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.6%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.6%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.5%
  8. went under 25%1.9%
of the forecasted distance
        

12,839 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 12 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above12,839 forecasts
        
14.8%300%+
12.1%200–300%
31.1%125–200%
35.4%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
1.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%150,104 forecasts
        
12.0%300%+
12.4%200–300%
30.5%125–200%
32.3%100–125%
2.9%75–99%
3.0%50–75%
3.0%25–50%
3.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%132,159 forecasts
        
6.2%300%+
8.5%200–300%
27.8%125–200%
41.3%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
3.7%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
4.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%124,560 forecasts
        
7.4%300%+
8.6%200–300%
26.2%125–200%
40.6%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
4.0%50–75%
4.1%25–50%
5.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%102,825 forecasts
        
5.7%300%+
7.8%200–300%
24.7%125–200%
44.5%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
3.8%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
5.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%96,527 forecasts
        
4.4%300%+
6.0%200–300%
21.9%125–200%
49.4%100–125%
4.3%75–99%
4.4%50–75%
4.2%25–50%
5.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%91,508 forecasts
        
4.7%300%+
6.2%200–300%
20.8%125–200%
48.1%100–125%
4.7%75–99%
4.8%50–75%
5.0%25–50%
5.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%87,168 forecasts
        
4.6%300%+
6.2%200–300%
20.5%125–200%
47.0%100–125%
5.0%75–99%
5.1%50–75%
5.4%25–50%
6.2%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the twenty-two days.

▲ Could rise6,282 forecasts
        
13.9%300%+
12.5%200–300%
32.9%125–200%
33.6%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
2.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall6,557 forecasts
        
15.6%300%+
11.7%200–300%
29.5%125–200%
37.2%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
1.7%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 12 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes1,687 forecasts
        
54.5%300%+
16.5%200–300%
14.5%125–200%
5.2%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
2.3%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
3.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes1,521 forecasts
        
27.3%300%+
22.2%200–300%
29.4%125–200%
11.0%100–125%
2.7%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
3.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour1,389 forecasts
        
9.1%300%+
17.3%200–300%
40.5%125–200%
24.5%100–125%
2.0%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
2.1%25–50%
3.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours223 forecasts
        
14.4%300%+
21.5%200–300%
29.6%125–200%
17.9%100–125%
4.9%75–99%
4.9%50–75%
3.6%25–50%
3.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours1,886 forecasts
        
2.9%300%+
9.2%200–300%
38.5%125–200%
41.2%100–125%
2.2%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
2.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day3,583 forecasts
        
3.8%300%+
5.8%200–300%
35.8%125–200%
49.8%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days110 forecasts
        
16.4%300%+
9.1%200–300%
31.8%125–200%
39.1%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days1,418 forecasts
        
10.0%300%+
5.1%200–300%
26.4%125–200%
56.2%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
0.4%25–50%
0.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days1,022 forecasts
        
5.0%300%+
17.7%200–300%
25.3%125–200%
50.1%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.2%50–75%
0.1%25–50%
0.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Thursday to Friday.

Thu 1
852
Fri 2
1,039
Mon 5
611
Tue 6
639
Wed 7
578
Thu 8
1,162
Fri 9
1,222
Mon 12
329
Tue 13
645
Wed 14
177
Thu 15
457
Fri 16
651
Mon 19
836
Tue 20
617
Wed 21
646
Thu 22
72
Fri 23
852
Mon 26
325
Tue 27
482
Wed 28
155
Thu 29
328
Fri 30
164
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the month, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 1,895 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-20 14:26 UTC
Price
104.69
Forecasted level
104.94
Distance
0.23%
Furthest move
0.96%
Confidence
95%
410% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 1,550 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-09 12:55 UTC
Price
102.25
Forecasted level
101.56
Distance
0.68%
Furthest move
1.37%
Confidence
96%
203% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 3,999 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-07 00:15 UTC
Price
100.61
Forecasted level
101.33
Distance
0.72%
Furthest move
0.93%
Confidence
95%
130% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 4,547 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-02 17:15 UTC
Price
102.22
Forecasted level
100.93
Distance
1.27%
Furthest move
1.27%
Confidence
95%
100% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 206 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-05 15:55 UTC
Price
100.38
Forecasted level
100.84
Distance
0.46%
Furthest move
0.38%
Confidence
96%
84% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 201 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-20 15:15 UTC
Price
105.71
Forecasted level
104.95
Distance
0.72%
Furthest move
0.50%
Confidence
95%
68% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 197 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-05 11:52 UTC
Price
101.85
Forecasted level
102.27
Distance
0.42%
Furthest move
0.18%
Confidence
95%
43% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 244 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-10-12 01:02 UTC
Price
101.03
Forecasted level
100.20
Distance
0.81%
Furthest move
0.04%
Confidence
95%
5% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Brent oil forecasts, opened between 1 and 30 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this month’s Brent oil forecasts

Other Brent oil reports