Every Tesla forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This report takes every Tesla price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 31 August to Monday 21 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?
Kunkafa’s confidence floor
The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.
Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 31,005 forecasts that settled came out like this:
went 300% or more37.0%
went 200 to 300%13.5%
went 125 to 200%22.9%
went 100 to 125%, reaching the level19.1%
went 75 to 99%1.2%
went 50 to 75%1.1%
went 25 to 50%1.2%
went under 25%4.0%
of the forecasted distance
31,005 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 12 days.
Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.
Confidence, and what it was worth
Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.
Confidence 95% and above31,005 forecasts
37.0%300%+
13.5%200–300%
22.9%125–200%
19.1%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
4.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%162,401 forecasts
27.5%300%+
13.1%200–300%
22.9%125–200%
22.1%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
9.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%141,106 forecasts
25.5%300%+
10.3%200–300%
20.5%125–200%
25.4%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.5%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
11.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%117,990 forecasts
25.5%300%+
10.2%200–300%
18.9%125–200%
26.7%100–125%
2.6%75–99%
2.7%50–75%
2.6%25–50%
10.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%95,281 forecasts
19.2%300%+
9.5%200–300%
21.0%125–200%
32.8%100–125%
2.9%75–99%
3.1%50–75%
3.0%25–50%
8.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%83,939 forecasts
14.3%300%+
7.6%200–300%
21.5%125–200%
37.2%100–125%
3.7%75–99%
3.9%50–75%
4.0%25–50%
7.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%71,229 forecasts
14.8%300%+
7.2%200–300%
20.1%125–200%
37.4%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
4.1%50–75%
4.0%25–50%
8.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%63,628 forecasts
14.5%300%+
7.0%200–300%
19.0%125–200%
36.9%100–125%
4.6%75–99%
4.9%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
8.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Both directions
A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the twenty days.
▲ Could rise15,871 forecasts
39.3%300%+
12.9%200–300%
21.4%125–200%
18.9%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
4.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall15,134 forecasts
34.6%300%+
14.0%200–300%
24.4%125–200%
19.3%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
3.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
By duration
Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 12 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.
Up to 5 minutes3,626 forecasts
73.0%300%+
8.8%200–300%
3.6%125–200%
1.5%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
10.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes4,383 forecasts
56.2%300%+
16.3%200–300%
13.8%125–200%
5.1%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
6.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour4,689 forecasts
37.4%300%+
20.9%200–300%
23.1%125–200%
10.7%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
4.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours769 forecasts
36.7%300%+
19.8%200–300%
23.1%125–200%
12.2%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
2.3%25–50%
3.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours4,619 forecasts
16.0%300%+
17.0%200–300%
36.3%125–200%
23.3%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
2.0%25–50%
2.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day8,092 forecasts
14.3%300%+
11.8%200–300%
32.9%125–200%
32.5%100–125%
2.1%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
2.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days248 forecasts
18.6%300%+
5.6%200–300%
23.8%125–200%
48.0%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
0.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days3,141 forecasts
43.8%300%+
6.7%200–300%
18.8%125–200%
30.7%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days1,438 forecasts
70.5%300%+
3.4%200–300%
7.4%125–200%
18.3%100–125%
0.3%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Day by day
The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Saturday to Monday.
What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time
Real forecasts from the period, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.
300% of the forecast distance or more · 11,477 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 5 days · 2026-08-30 16:41 UTC
Price
352.06
Forecasted level
355.19
Distance
0.89%
Furthest move
9.14%
Confidence
97%
1029% of the forecasted distance
200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 4,177 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-14 13:30 UTC
Price
365.69
Forecasted level
363.65
Distance
0.56%
Furthest move
1.17%
Confidence
95%
211% of the forecasted distance
125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 7,092 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 14:45 UTC
Price
379.75
Forecasted level
382.19
Distance
0.64%
Furthest move
1.18%
Confidence
96%
185% of the forecasted distance
100 to 125%, reached the level · 5,922 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 5 days · 2026-09-04 11:49 UTC
Price
364.94
Forecasted level
362.83
Distance
0.58%
Furthest move
0.59%
Confidence
96%
103% of the forecasted distance
75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 378 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-04 13:30 UTC
Price
357.71
Forecasted level
360.66
Distance
0.82%
Furthest move
0.81%
Confidence
96%
97% of the forecasted distance
50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 345 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 2 hours · 2026-09-04 15:50 UTC
Price
352.15
Forecasted level
351.54
Distance
0.17%
Furthest move
0.12%
Confidence
95%
69% of the forecasted distance
25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 378 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 22:00 UTC
Price
374.88
Forecasted level
378.24
Distance
0.90%
Furthest move
0.33%
Confidence
95%
36% of the forecasted distance
Under 25% of the forecast distance · 1,236 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-03 13:15 UTC
Price
366.05
Forecasted level
365.31
Distance
0.20%
Furthest move
0.00%
Confidence
96%
0% of the forecasted distance
How this was counted
Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Tesla forecasts, opened between 31 August and 21 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 21 September.
“Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.
Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.