Monthly report · 2 to 30 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Tesla, 2 to 30 September

Prepared October 1, 2026 · Report data

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Every Tesla forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This monthly report takes every Tesla price forecast Kunkafa published from Wednesday 2 to Wednesday 30 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 48,149 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more33.4%
  2. went 200 to 300%14.0%
  3. went 125 to 200%23.8%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level21.8%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.1%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.0%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.1%
  8. went under 25%3.8%
of the forecasted distance
        

48,149 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 12 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above48,149 forecasts
        
33.4%300%+
14.0%200–300%
23.8%125–200%
21.8%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
3.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%252,787 forecasts
        
25.8%300%+
13.3%200–300%
23.3%125–200%
23.7%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
8.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%219,904 forecasts
        
22.9%300%+
10.1%200–300%
20.8%125–200%
28.8%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.3%50–75%
2.3%25–50%
10.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%184,122 forecasts
        
22.6%300%+
9.8%200–300%
19.3%125–200%
30.4%100–125%
2.7%75–99%
2.7%50–75%
2.5%25–50%
10.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%147,114 forecasts
        
16.3%300%+
9.1%200–300%
21.0%125–200%
36.2%100–125%
3.0%75–99%
3.1%50–75%
3.1%25–50%
8.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%132,459 forecasts
        
11.7%300%+
7.4%200–300%
21.7%125–200%
40.0%100–125%
3.7%75–99%
3.9%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
7.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%114,478 forecasts
        
12.1%300%+
6.7%200–300%
20.2%125–200%
40.5%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.1%25–50%
8.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%103,471 forecasts
        
12.2%300%+
6.6%200–300%
18.8%125–200%
39.7%100–125%
4.6%75–99%
5.0%50–75%
4.5%25–50%
8.6%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the twenty-six days.

▲ Could rise23,966 forecasts
        
33.2%300%+
13.6%200–300%
23.4%125–200%
22.5%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
4.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall24,183 forecasts
        
33.6%300%+
14.4%200–300%
24.1%125–200%
21.1%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
3.5%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 12 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes6,197 forecasts
        
73.1%300%+
9.4%200–300%
3.7%125–200%
1.4%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
10.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes7,542 forecasts
        
54.3%300%+
17.2%200–300%
14.7%125–200%
5.4%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
5.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour7,692 forecasts
        
37.5%300%+
20.2%200–300%
23.4%125–200%
11.2%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
4.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours1,326 forecasts
        
36.0%300%+
20.1%200–300%
24.3%125–200%
11.7%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
2.1%25–50%
2.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours6,804 forecasts
        
17.0%300%+
17.6%200–300%
35.4%125–200%
23.4%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
2.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day10,794 forecasts
        
13.0%300%+
11.9%200–300%
33.5%125–200%
34.0%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
2.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days589 forecasts
        
15.4%300%+
10.4%200–300%
28.7%125–200%
42.6%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
0.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days3,996 forecasts
        
16.0%300%+
7.0%200–300%
25.3%125–200%
51.7%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days3,209 forecasts
        
24.8%300%+
7.1%200–300%
24.4%125–200%
43.6%100–125%
0.1%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Tuesday to Wednesday.

Tue 1
0
Wed 2
118
Thu 3
874
Fri 4
1,911
Sat 5
1,511
Mon 7
2,438
Tue 8
479
Wed 9
1,897
Thu 10
1,716
Fri 11
2,130
Sat 12
3,417
Mon 14
3,485
Tue 15
1,813
Wed 16
639
Thu 17
1,910
Fri 18
1,921
Sat 19
2,224
Mon 21
4,434
Tue 22
2,427
Wed 23
1,642
Thu 24
1,197
Fri 25
2,100
Sat 26
1,690
Mon 28
2,939
Tue 29
1,524
Wed 30
1,713
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the month, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 16,078 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-03 14:05 UTC
Price
376.06
Forecasted level
378.43
Distance
0.63%
Furthest move
2.18%
Confidence
95%
346% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 6,747 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-14 13:30 UTC
Price
365.69
Forecasted level
363.65
Distance
0.56%
Furthest move
1.17%
Confidence
95%
211% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 11,453 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 14:45 UTC
Price
379.75
Forecasted level
382.19
Distance
0.64%
Furthest move
1.18%
Confidence
96%
185% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 10,490 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-08 19:15 UTC
Price
368.44
Forecasted level
364.52
Distance
1.06%
Furthest move
1.09%
Confidence
96%
102% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 511 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-04 13:30 UTC
Price
357.71
Forecasted level
360.66
Distance
0.82%
Furthest move
0.81%
Confidence
96%
97% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 481 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-21 13:15 UTC
Price
372.18
Forecasted level
370.83
Distance
0.36%
Furthest move
0.22%
Confidence
95%
60% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 533 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 22:00 UTC
Price
374.88
Forecasted level
378.24
Distance
0.90%
Furthest move
0.33%
Confidence
95%
36% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 1,856 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-21 13:00 UTC
Price
370.62
Forecasted level
369.43
Distance
0.32%
Furthest move
0.01%
Confidence
95%
3% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Tesla forecasts, opened between 2 and 30 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this month’s Tesla forecasts

Other Tesla reports