Weekly report · 28 September to 5 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Tesla, 28 September to 5 October

Prepared October 5, 2026 · Report data

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Every Tesla forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every Tesla price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 28 September to Monday 5 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 15,848 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more36.0%
  2. went 200 to 300%19.0%
  3. went 125 to 200%19.6%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level13.0%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.0%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.8%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.7%
  8. went under 25%9.9%
of the forecasted distance
        

15,848 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 5 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above15,848 forecasts
        
36.0%300%+
19.0%200–300%
19.6%125–200%
13.0%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
9.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%65,925 forecasts
        
25.3%300%+
16.4%200–300%
21.2%125–200%
18.4%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
13.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%47,384 forecasts
        
22.6%300%+
12.2%200–300%
19.6%125–200%
24.9%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.3%50–75%
2.3%25–50%
13.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%37,987 forecasts
        
22.9%300%+
11.3%200–300%
20.1%125–200%
25.5%100–125%
3.0%75–99%
2.9%50–75%
3.2%25–50%
11.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%27,671 forecasts
        
16.6%300%+
10.8%200–300%
24.0%125–200%
28.5%100–125%
3.2%75–99%
3.3%50–75%
3.6%25–50%
10.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%25,081 forecasts
        
11.5%300%+
9.1%200–300%
23.9%125–200%
33.7%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
4.0%50–75%
4.2%25–50%
9.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%21,651 forecasts
        
13.1%300%+
8.7%200–300%
22.6%125–200%
32.5%100–125%
4.6%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
9.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%19,009 forecasts
        
14.9%300%+
9.6%200–300%
21.6%125–200%
29.2%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
4.6%25–50%
11.6%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the seven days.

▲ Could rise7,642 forecasts
        
33.9%300%+
21.0%200–300%
20.6%125–200%
13.2%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
8.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall8,206 forecasts
        
38.0%300%+
17.1%200–300%
18.6%125–200%
13.0%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
11.2%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 5 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes2,342 forecasts
        
61.6%300%+
14.8%200–300%
3.4%125–200%
1.0%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
17.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes3,913 forecasts
        
43.0%300%+
26.0%200–300%
10.6%125–200%
3.7%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
14.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour3,975 forecasts
        
38.1%300%+
20.3%200–300%
19.6%125–200%
9.2%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
10.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours506 forecasts
        
31.6%300%+
22.1%200–300%
26.1%125–200%
11.2%100–125%
2.2%75–99%
2.2%50–75%
2.2%25–50%
2.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours2,540 forecasts
        
25.3%300%+
15.9%200–300%
30.1%125–200%
20.6%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
5.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day2,517 forecasts
        
10.2%300%+
12.4%200–300%
36.6%125–200%
36.9%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
1.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days54 forecasts
        
18.5%300%+
11.1%200–300%
24.1%125–200%
37.0%100–125%
5.6%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
1.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days1 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
100.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 28
1,906
Tue 29
1,535
Wed 30
2,014
Thu 1
1,305
Fri 2
2,167
Sat 3
3,129
Mon 5
3,792
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 5,709 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 13:50 UTC
Price
363.84
Forecasted level
364.89
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
1.25%
Confidence
95%
433% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 3,007 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-02 14:20 UTC
Price
373.71
Forecasted level
372.70
Distance
0.27%
Furthest move
0.75%
Confidence
96%
279% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 3,102 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 14:30 UTC
Price
359.88
Forecasted level
361.70
Distance
0.51%
Furthest move
0.88%
Confidence
96%
174% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 2,070 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-02 13:40 UTC
Price
369.27
Forecasted level
368.29
Distance
0.27%
Furthest move
0.31%
Confidence
95%
118% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 158 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 14:15 UTC
Price
361.52
Forecasted level
363.40
Distance
0.52%
Furthest move
0.42%
Confidence
96%
81% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 123 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-30 13:45 UTC
Price
346.86
Forecasted level
346.24
Distance
0.18%
Furthest move
0.10%
Confidence
96%
54% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 116 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 16:30 UTC
Price
360.62
Forecasted level
362.32
Distance
0.47%
Furthest move
0.12%
Confidence
95%
25% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 1,563 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-30 14:01 UTC
Price
347.74
Forecasted level
347.21
Distance
0.15%
Furthest move
0.03%
Confidence
96%
16% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Tesla forecasts, opened between 28 September and 5 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 5 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s Tesla forecasts

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