Weekly report · 14 to 21 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Tesla, 14 to 21 September

Prepared September 22, 2026 · Report data

Every Tesla forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every Tesla price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 14 to Monday 21 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 10,376 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more34.7%
  2. went 200 to 300%15.4%
  3. went 125 to 200%24.8%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level17.7%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.0%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.0%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.9%
  8. went under 25%4.5%
of the forecasted distance
        

10,376 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above10,376 forecasts
        
34.7%300%+
15.4%200–300%
24.8%125–200%
17.7%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
4.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%60,567 forecasts
        
28.7%300%+
14.4%200–300%
22.4%125–200%
18.6%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
10.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%48,605 forecasts
        
25.8%300%+
11.0%200–300%
20.4%125–200%
21.6%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.5%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
13.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%40,257 forecasts
        
25.7%300%+
10.8%200–300%
19.8%125–200%
23.7%100–125%
2.6%75–99%
2.7%50–75%
2.5%25–50%
12.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%28,891 forecasts
        
16.8%300%+
10.8%200–300%
24.1%125–200%
28.6%100–125%
3.1%75–99%
3.4%50–75%
3.4%25–50%
9.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%25,860 forecasts
        
12.5%300%+
8.7%200–300%
24.0%125–200%
32.7%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
4.4%25–50%
9.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%21,275 forecasts
        
13.8%300%+
8.1%200–300%
22.4%125–200%
33.2%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
10.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%18,980 forecasts
        
14.2%300%+
7.8%200–300%
21.4%125–200%
32.6%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
4.2%25–50%
11.1%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the seven days.

▲ Could rise5,345 forecasts
        
35.7%300%+
16.7%200–300%
23.5%125–200%
16.9%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
4.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall5,031 forecasts
        
33.6%300%+
14.0%200–300%
26.2%125–200%
18.5%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
4.4%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes1,391 forecasts
        
71.6%300%+
9.2%200–300%
3.3%125–200%
0.9%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
13.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes1,813 forecasts
        
57.8%300%+
16.6%200–300%
11.5%125–200%
4.5%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
6.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour2,125 forecasts
        
39.6%300%+
20.6%200–300%
21.7%125–200%
10.5%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
3.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours333 forecasts
        
37.0%300%+
21.3%200–300%
21.9%125–200%
12.0%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
3.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours1,783 forecasts
        
16.3%300%+
17.1%200–300%
38.5%125–200%
22.6%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
2.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day2,826 forecasts
        
10.0%300%+
12.3%200–300%
38.0%125–200%
36.1%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days105 forecasts
        
17.1%300%+
5.7%200–300%
24.8%125–200%
52.4%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 14
1,497
Tue 15
1,433
Wed 16
638
Thu 17
1,909
Fri 18
1,888
Sat 19
1,937
Mon 21
1,074
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 3,600 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-14 11:05 UTC
Price
360.10
Forecasted level
361.31
Distance
0.34%
Furthest move
2.16%
Confidence
95%
644% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 1,596 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-14 13:30 UTC
Price
365.69
Forecasted level
363.65
Distance
0.56%
Furthest move
1.17%
Confidence
95%
211% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 2,575 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-15 15:45 UTC
Price
361.50
Forecasted level
362.90
Distance
0.39%
Furthest move
0.72%
Confidence
95%
186% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 1,836 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-14 15:30 UTC
Price
363.59
Forecasted level
362.02
Distance
0.43%
Furthest move
0.53%
Confidence
95%
122% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 102 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-18 14:59 UTC
Price
368.04
Forecasted level
369.12
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
0.26%
Confidence
95%
88% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 103 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-19 04:24 UTC
Price
365.09
Forecasted level
364.58
Distance
0.14%
Furthest move
0.08%
Confidence
96%
58% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 96 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-18 13:48 UTC
Price
369.80
Forecasted level
370.43
Distance
0.17%
Furthest move
0.06%
Confidence
95%
38% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 468 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-17 15:15 UTC
Price
365.94
Forecasted level
365.38
Distance
0.15%
Furthest move
0.01%
Confidence
95%
8% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Tesla forecasts, opened between 14 and 21 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 21 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s Tesla forecasts

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