Full report · 31 August to 2 November 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Microsoft, 31 August to 2 November

Prepared November 2, 2026 · Report data

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Every Microsoft forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This report takes every Microsoft price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 31 August to Monday 2 November at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 130,055 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more34.9%
  2. went 200 to 300%10.9%
  3. went 125 to 200%23.5%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level20.3%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.6%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.6%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.5%
  8. went under 25%8.7%
of the forecasted distance
        

130,055 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 50 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above130,055 forecasts
        
34.9%300%+
10.9%200–300%
23.5%125–200%
20.3%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
8.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%670,482 forecasts
        
31.4%300%+
9.9%200–300%
21.9%125–200%
20.1%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
13.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%550,863 forecasts
        
25.7%300%+
7.9%200–300%
21.5%125–200%
27.3%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
12.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%441,156 forecasts
        
25.0%300%+
7.9%200–300%
21.3%125–200%
27.8%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.0%25–50%
12.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%355,928 forecasts
        
18.8%300%+
7.7%200–300%
22.6%125–200%
33.9%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.5%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
9.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%312,648 forecasts
        
13.2%300%+
6.6%200–300%
22.7%125–200%
40.2%100–125%
3.1%75–99%
3.1%50–75%
3.1%25–50%
8.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%262,494 forecasts
        
11.2%300%+
6.1%200–300%
21.4%125–200%
42.7%100–125%
3.6%75–99%
3.6%50–75%
3.7%25–50%
7.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%237,288 forecasts
        
11.2%300%+
6.2%200–300%
20.2%125–200%
42.4%100–125%
3.9%75–99%
4.0%50–75%
4.1%25–50%
8.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the 56 days.

▲ Could rise65,365 forecasts
        
36.4%300%+
10.8%200–300%
22.4%125–200%
20.3%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.4%25–50%
8.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall64,690 forecasts
        
33.5%300%+
11.0%200–300%
24.7%125–200%
20.3%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
8.8%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 50 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes16,260 forecasts
        
54.0%300%+
2.7%200–300%
6.1%125–200%
0.3%100–125%
0.2%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.1%25–50%
36.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes17,372 forecasts
        
63.2%300%+
8.0%200–300%
10.1%125–200%
2.4%100–125%
0.4%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.4%25–50%
15.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour23,469 forecasts
        
53.3%300%+
13.5%200–300%
17.2%125–200%
6.6%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
7.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours2,242 forecasts
        
39.7%300%+
18.5%200–300%
22.2%125–200%
10.8%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
4.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours14,905 forecasts
        
24.2%300%+
17.6%200–300%
32.6%125–200%
18.8%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
3.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day19,566 forecasts
        
15.7%300%+
14.6%200–300%
34.7%125–200%
29.9%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
1.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days1,548 forecasts
        
11.3%300%+
10.9%200–300%
33.1%125–200%
40.4%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
1.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days14,531 forecasts
        
15.9%300%+
12.0%200–300%
35.1%125–200%
36.7%100–125%
0.2%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days19,335 forecasts
        
16.2%300%+
6.9%200–300%
30.1%125–200%
46.8%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 days824 forecasts
        
0.4%300%+
2.0%200–300%
33.7%125–200%
59.7%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 50 days3 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
100.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Saturday to Monday.

Sat 29
0
Mon 31
70
Tue 1
0
Wed 2
669
Thu 3
1,692
Fri 4
1,353
Sat 5
4,954
Mon 7
7,523
Tue 8
496
Wed 9
1,526
Thu 10
1,353
Fri 11
1,686
Sat 12
6,036
Mon 14
8,946
Tue 15
1,129
Wed 16
1,200
Thu 17
1,759
Fri 18
1,247
Sat 19
1,990
Mon 21
4,660
Tue 22
1,734
Wed 23
1,306
Thu 24
1,018
Fri 25
2,181
Sat 26
2,072
Mon 28
6,311
Tue 29
1,542
Wed 30
1,676
Thu 1
710
Fri 2
932
Sat 3
4,966
Mon 5
10,651
Tue 6
1,839
Wed 7
1,667
Thu 8
2,172
Fri 9
1,792
Sat 10
2,675
Mon 12
8,595
Tue 13
1,488
Wed 14
1,652
Thu 15
1,081
Fri 16
1,781
Sat 17
1,357
Mon 19
4,154
Tue 20
655
Wed 21
513
Thu 22
916
Fri 23
947
Sat 24
2,672
Mon 26
4,064
Tue 27
334
Wed 28
1,918
Thu 29
1,437
Fri 30
803
Sat 31
1,632
Mon 2
523
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the period, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 45,434 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-03 04:30 UTC
Price
498.24
Forecasted level
503.93
Distance
1.14%
Furthest move
3.51%
Confidence
95%
308% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 14,175 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-10-16 11:00 UTC
Price
542.36
Forecasted level
539.68
Distance
0.49%
Furthest move
1.17%
Confidence
96%
236% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 30,638 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:05 UTC
Price
524.78
Forecasted level
527.74
Distance
0.56%
Furthest move
0.76%
Confidence
96%
135% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 26,408 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 50 days · 2026-09-06 00:55 UTC
Price
501.74
Forecasted level
497.07
Distance
0.93%
Furthest move
0.97%
Confidence
95%
104% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 733 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-10-16 11:47 UTC
Price
542.20
Forecasted level
544.46
Distance
0.42%
Furthest move
0.41%
Confidence
96%
97% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 742 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:51 UTC
Price
522.17
Forecasted level
518.64
Distance
0.68%
Furthest move
0.35%
Confidence
96%
51% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 602 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-29 13:48 UTC
Price
532.05
Forecasted level
533.99
Distance
0.36%
Furthest move
0.09%
Confidence
95%
25% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 11,323 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:52 UTC
Price
520.60
Forecasted level
517.24
Distance
0.64%
Furthest move
0.04%
Confidence
96%
5% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Microsoft forecasts, opened between 31 August and 2 November 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 2 November.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

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