Weekly report · 19 to 26 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Microsoft, 19 to 26 October

Prepared October 26, 2026 · Report data

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Every Microsoft forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every Microsoft price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 19 to Monday 26 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 8,114 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more38.7%
  2. went 200 to 300%10.4%
  3. went 125 to 200%23.6%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level12.8%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.7%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.9%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.8%
  8. went under 25%12.1%
of the forecasted distance
        

8,114 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above8,114 forecasts
        
38.7%300%+
10.4%200–300%
23.6%125–200%
12.8%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
12.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%65,256 forecasts
        
34.9%300%+
9.6%200–300%
21.8%125–200%
14.9%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
15.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%50,515 forecasts
        
29.8%300%+
8.2%200–300%
21.5%125–200%
19.4%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
15.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%42,897 forecasts
        
30.6%300%+
8.3%200–300%
20.5%125–200%
20.0%100–125%
2.0%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.0%25–50%
14.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%35,113 forecasts
        
24.3%300%+
9.2%200–300%
22.5%125–200%
23.8%100–125%
2.6%75–99%
2.6%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
12.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%28,066 forecasts
        
16.7%300%+
7.6%200–300%
25.0%125–200%
30.3%100–125%
3.1%75–99%
3.3%50–75%
2.9%25–50%
11.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%21,028 forecasts
        
15.7%300%+
7.2%200–300%
24.4%125–200%
33.4%100–125%
3.3%75–99%
3.5%50–75%
3.0%25–50%
9.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%18,954 forecasts
        
14.9%300%+
7.7%200–300%
23.1%125–200%
32.2%100–125%
3.7%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
4.1%25–50%
9.8%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the seven days.

▲ Could rise5,360 forecasts
        
36.0%300%+
10.7%200–300%
25.0%125–200%
14.2%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
12.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall2,754 forecasts
        
43.8%300%+
9.8%200–300%
21.0%125–200%
10.2%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
12.2%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes966 forecasts
        
57.4%300%+
0.5%200–300%
5.7%125–200%
0.1%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.2%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
36.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes1,341 forecasts
        
54.3%300%+
7.1%200–300%
16.4%125–200%
2.8%100–125%
0.4%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
18.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour2,102 forecasts
        
46.1%300%+
12.5%200–300%
20.9%125–200%
7.3%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
11.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours185 forecasts
        
27.6%300%+
18.9%200–300%
31.3%125–200%
13.0%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
2.7%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
3.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours1,562 forecasts
        
22.0%300%+
13.4%200–300%
33.0%125–200%
17.2%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
2.1%50–75%
2.1%25–50%
8.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day1,835 forecasts
        
26.7%300%+
12.3%200–300%
31.3%125–200%
27.5%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
0.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days123 forecasts
        
0.8%300%+
11.4%200–300%
44.7%125–200%
43.1%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 19
729
Tue 20
655
Wed 21
423
Thu 22
916
Fri 23
817
Sat 24
2,359
Mon 26
2,215
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 3,136 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-19 13:15 UTC
Price
529.52
Forecasted level
530.57
Distance
0.20%
Furthest move
0.63%
Confidence
97%
315% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 846 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-23 13:25 UTC
Price
520.36
Forecasted level
519.46
Distance
0.17%
Furthest move
0.37%
Confidence
96%
213% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 1,917 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-19 14:20 UTC
Price
534.23
Forecasted level
535.41
Distance
0.22%
Furthest move
0.32%
Confidence
96%
145% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 1,042 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-19 13:32 UTC
Price
532.00
Forecasted level
531.07
Distance
0.17%
Furthest move
0.20%
Confidence
95%
114% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 53 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-23 15:54 UTC
Price
525.66
Forecasted level
526.57
Distance
0.17%
Furthest move
0.14%
Confidence
95%
78% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 71 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 2 hours · 2026-10-23 14:30 UTC
Price
524.08
Forecasted level
523.65
Distance
0.08%
Furthest move
0.06%
Confidence
95%
74% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 66 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-22 15:13 UTC
Price
527.28
Forecasted level
528.03
Distance
0.14%
Furthest move
0.05%
Confidence
96%
36% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 983 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-23 14:04 UTC
Price
521.95
Forecasted level
521.37
Distance
0.11%
Furthest move
0.02%
Confidence
95%
17% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Microsoft forecasts, opened between 19 and 26 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 26 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s Microsoft forecasts

Other Microsoft reports