Monthly report · 2 to 30 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Microsoft, 2 to 30 September

Prepared October 1, 2026 · Report data

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Every Microsoft forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This monthly report takes every Microsoft price forecast Kunkafa published from Wednesday 2 to Wednesday 30 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 58,699 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more39.4%
  2. went 200 to 300%11.8%
  3. went 125 to 200%20.5%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level16.1%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.6%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.6%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.5%
  8. went under 25%10.5%
of the forecasted distance
        

58,699 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 25 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above58,699 forecasts
        
39.4%300%+
11.8%200–300%
20.5%125–200%
16.1%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
10.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%305,813 forecasts
        
33.8%300%+
10.5%200–300%
19.7%125–200%
17.9%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
14.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%241,166 forecasts
        
28.7%300%+
8.5%200–300%
19.7%125–200%
24.0%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
14.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%187,902 forecasts
        
26.9%300%+
8.6%200–300%
20.2%125–200%
25.0%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.0%25–50%
13.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%144,785 forecasts
        
21.1%300%+
8.2%200–300%
21.9%125–200%
30.6%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.4%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
11.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%125,270 forecasts
        
15.7%300%+
7.0%200–300%
22.4%125–200%
36.5%100–125%
3.3%75–99%
3.2%50–75%
3.1%25–50%
8.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%106,107 forecasts
        
13.1%300%+
6.4%200–300%
21.7%125–200%
39.4%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
3.6%50–75%
3.6%25–50%
8.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%96,206 forecasts
        
12.5%300%+
6.5%200–300%
20.5%125–200%
40.6%100–125%
3.9%75–99%
3.9%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
8.2%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the twenty-six days.

▲ Could rise30,300 forecasts
        
41.0%300%+
11.6%200–300%
19.2%125–200%
16.7%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.4%25–50%
9.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall28,399 forecasts
        
37.6%300%+
12.1%200–300%
21.7%125–200%
15.6%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
11.1%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 25 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes8,079 forecasts
        
51.1%300%+
4.0%200–300%
3.7%125–200%
0.1%100–125%
0.2%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
40.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes8,922 forecasts
        
65.4%300%+
9.1%200–300%
7.9%125–200%
1.9%100–125%
0.4%75–99%
0.4%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
14.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour12,112 forecasts
        
53.0%300%+
15.0%200–300%
16.0%125–200%
6.1%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
8.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours1,112 forecasts
        
41.1%300%+
17.3%200–300%
21.7%125–200%
10.5%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
5.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours7,285 forecasts
        
24.6%300%+
18.3%200–300%
32.3%125–200%
18.5%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
3.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day8,948 forecasts
        
17.0%300%+
15.2%200–300%
34.2%125–200%
26.7%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
2.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days589 forecasts
        
17.5%300%+
8.5%200–300%
29.7%125–200%
38.2%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
1.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days4,938 forecasts
        
20.3%300%+
12.1%200–300%
32.0%125–200%
34.9%100–125%
0.3%75–99%
0.3%50–75%
0.1%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days6,711 forecasts
        
27.5%300%+
6.8%200–300%
24.6%125–200%
41.1%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 days3 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
33.3%200–300%
66.7%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Tuesday to Wednesday.

Tue 1
0
Wed 2
669
Thu 3
1,692
Fri 4
1,353
Sat 5
4,954
Mon 7
7,520
Tue 8
496
Wed 9
1,526
Thu 10
1,323
Fri 11
1,422
Sat 12
5,799
Mon 14
8,702
Tue 15
1,129
Wed 16
1,200
Thu 17
1,759
Fri 18
1,247
Sat 19
1,970
Mon 21
3,727
Tue 22
1,734
Wed 23
1,286
Thu 24
875
Fri 25
1,879
Sat 26
1,350
Mon 28
2,798
Tue 29
1,270
Wed 30
1,019
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the month, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 23,100 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-03 04:30 UTC
Price
498.24
Forecasted level
503.93
Distance
1.14%
Furthest move
3.51%
Confidence
95%
308% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 6,940 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 18:00 UTC
Price
514.81
Forecasted level
512.68
Distance
0.41%
Furthest move
1.06%
Confidence
96%
255% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 12,003 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
Price
497.46
Forecasted level
500.04
Distance
0.52%
Furthest move
0.87%
Confidence
95%
168% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 9,470 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-05 08:56 UTC
Price
500.30
Forecasted level
496.66
Distance
0.73%
Furthest move
0.76%
Confidence
98%
104% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 364 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 15:50 UTC
Price
514.39
Forecasted level
515.87
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
0.26%
Confidence
96%
90% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 380 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-22 15:52 UTC
Price
495.10
Forecasted level
493.94
Distance
0.23%
Furthest move
0.17%
Confidence
96%
74% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 289 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 5 days · 2026-09-05 23:32 UTC
Price
502.37
Forecasted level
504.13
Distance
0.35%
Furthest move
0.17%
Confidence
100%
48% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 6,153 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-22 16:23 UTC
Price
495.42
Forecasted level
494.03
Distance
0.28%
Furthest move
0.02%
Confidence
96%
6% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Microsoft forecasts, opened between 2 and 30 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this month’s Microsoft forecasts

Other Microsoft reports