Monthly report · 1 to 31 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Microsoft, 1 to 31 October

Prepared November 1, 2026 · Report data

Share on XShare on LinkedInShare on WhatsAppShare on Telegram

Every Microsoft forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This monthly report takes every Microsoft price forecast Kunkafa published from Thursday 1 to Saturday 31 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 62,257 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more34.6%
  2. went 200 to 300%10.3%
  3. went 125 to 200%24.3%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level21.0%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.5%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.5%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.5%
  8. went under 25%8.3%
of the forecasted distance
        

62,257 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 12 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above62,257 forecasts
        
34.6%300%+
10.3%200–300%
24.3%125–200%
21.0%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
8.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%335,160 forecasts
        
30.6%300%+
9.4%200–300%
23.1%125–200%
20.3%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
12.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%272,456 forecasts
        
24.6%300%+
7.5%200–300%
22.4%125–200%
27.6%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
12.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%221,520 forecasts
        
25.0%300%+
7.6%200–300%
21.3%125–200%
27.6%100–125%
2.1%75–99%
2.2%50–75%
2.2%25–50%
12.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%178,730 forecasts
        
18.9%300%+
7.8%200–300%
22.5%125–200%
33.2%100–125%
2.5%75–99%
2.6%50–75%
2.6%25–50%
9.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%155,843 forecasts
        
12.7%300%+
6.6%200–300%
22.9%125–200%
39.7%100–125%
3.2%75–99%
3.2%50–75%
3.3%25–50%
8.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%128,392 forecasts
        
11.2%300%+
6.0%200–300%
21.6%125–200%
42.0%100–125%
3.6%75–99%
3.7%50–75%
3.8%25–50%
8.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%116,939 forecasts
        
11.2%300%+
6.2%200–300%
20.2%125–200%
41.3%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
8.6%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the twenty-seven days.

▲ Could rise30,625 forecasts
        
36.2%300%+
10.4%200–300%
23.5%125–200%
19.7%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
8.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall31,632 forecasts
        
33.1%300%+
10.1%200–300%
25.1%125–200%
22.2%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
7.9%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 12 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes8,166 forecasts
        
56.9%300%+
1.5%200–300%
8.4%125–200%
0.6%100–125%
0.1%75–99%
0.2%50–75%
0.1%25–50%
32.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes8,393 forecasts
        
60.8%300%+
6.9%200–300%
12.5%125–200%
2.9%100–125%
0.4%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
15.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour11,135 forecasts
        
53.9%300%+
11.8%200–300%
18.4%125–200%
7.0%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
7.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours1,130 forecasts
        
38.2%300%+
19.7%200–300%
22.7%125–200%
11.1%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.9%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
3.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours7,475 forecasts
        
23.8%300%+
17.2%200–300%
32.9%125–200%
18.9%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
3.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day9,617 forecasts
        
15.2%300%+
13.8%200–300%
35.0%125–200%
32.3%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days837 forecasts
        
7.3%300%+
13.4%200–300%
35.4%125–200%
40.3%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
1.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days6,997 forecasts
        
14.3%300%+
12.5%200–300%
36.1%125–200%
36.8%100–125%
0.2%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days8,507 forecasts
        
12.3%300%+
6.5%200–300%
28.9%125–200%
52.1%100–125%
0.1%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Thursday to Saturday.

Thu 1
710
Fri 2
932
Sat 3
4,966
Mon 5
10,651
Tue 6
1,839
Wed 7
1,667
Thu 8
2,172
Fri 9
1,792
Sat 10
2,675
Mon 12
8,595
Tue 13
1,488
Wed 14
1,652
Thu 15
1,081
Fri 16
1,781
Sat 17
1,357
Mon 19
4,154
Tue 20
655
Wed 21
513
Thu 22
916
Fri 23
947
Sat 24
2,672
Mon 26
3,624
Tue 27
334
Wed 28
1,918
Thu 29
1,437
Fri 30
803
Sat 31
926
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the month, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 21,544 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-28 20:35 UTC
Price
553.61
Forecasted level
555.22
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
2.06%
Confidence
96%
705% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 6,387 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-10-16 11:00 UTC
Price
542.36
Forecasted level
539.68
Distance
0.49%
Furthest move
1.17%
Confidence
96%
236% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 15,149 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:05 UTC
Price
524.78
Forecasted level
527.74
Distance
0.56%
Furthest move
0.76%
Confidence
96%
135% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 13,063 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:36 UTC
Price
528.18
Forecasted level
524.28
Distance
0.74%
Furthest move
0.79%
Confidence
95%
107% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 341 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-10-16 11:47 UTC
Price
542.20
Forecasted level
544.46
Distance
0.42%
Furthest move
0.41%
Confidence
96%
97% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 339 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:51 UTC
Price
522.17
Forecasted level
518.64
Distance
0.68%
Furthest move
0.35%
Confidence
96%
51% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 298 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-29 13:48 UTC
Price
532.05
Forecasted level
533.99
Distance
0.36%
Furthest move
0.09%
Confidence
95%
25% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 5,136 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:52 UTC
Price
520.60
Forecasted level
517.24
Distance
0.64%
Furthest move
0.04%
Confidence
96%
5% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Microsoft forecasts, opened between 1 and 31 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 31 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this month’s Microsoft forecasts

Other Microsoft reports