Weekly report · 14 to 21 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Microsoft, 14 to 21 September

Prepared September 22, 2026 · Report data

Every Microsoft forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every Microsoft price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 14 to Monday 21 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 9,460 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more40.5%
  2. went 200 to 300%13.2%
  3. went 125 to 200%22.3%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level14.0%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.7%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.6%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.4%
  8. went under 25%8.3%
of the forecasted distance
        

9,460 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above9,460 forecasts
        
40.5%300%+
13.2%200–300%
22.3%125–200%
14.0%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.4%25–50%
8.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%66,266 forecasts
        
36.4%300%+
11.9%200–300%
18.5%125–200%
14.1%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
15.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%53,659 forecasts
        
33.4%300%+
9.3%200–300%
16.9%125–200%
17.9%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.9%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
17.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%43,567 forecasts
        
29.1%300%+
9.2%200–300%
18.6%125–200%
21.6%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
1.9%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
15.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%30,346 forecasts
        
23.7%300%+
9.7%200–300%
21.3%125–200%
24.0%100–125%
2.8%75–99%
2.6%50–75%
2.5%25–50%
13.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%25,369 forecasts
        
17.0%300%+
7.8%200–300%
22.4%125–200%
31.3%100–125%
3.6%75–99%
3.3%50–75%
3.5%25–50%
11.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%19,986 forecasts
        
14.8%300%+
7.2%200–300%
22.9%125–200%
32.5%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
3.7%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
10.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%18,186 forecasts
        
15.4%300%+
7.2%200–300%
21.6%125–200%
33.7%100–125%
4.5%75–99%
3.9%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
9.8%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the seven days.

▲ Could rise4,664 forecasts
        
41.7%300%+
14.9%200–300%
20.7%125–200%
13.1%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
7.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall4,796 forecasts
        
39.3%300%+
11.6%200–300%
23.8%125–200%
15.0%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.4%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
9.1%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes1,559 forecasts
        
61.9%300%+
4.4%200–300%
3.0%125–200%
0.3%100–125%
0.3%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.1%25–50%
29.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes1,354 forecasts
        
65.1%300%+
10.4%200–300%
8.9%125–200%
3.8%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.4%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
10.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour2,198 forecasts
        
53.4%300%+
14.0%200–300%
19.0%125–200%
7.8%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.2%25–50%
4.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours380 forecasts
        
42.4%300%+
18.7%200–300%
18.7%125–200%
9.2%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
6.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours1,677 forecasts
        
22.4%300%+
20.0%200–300%
32.9%125–200%
20.4%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
1.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day2,149 forecasts
        
12.7%300%+
14.3%200–300%
39.1%125–200%
31.2%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
1.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days143 forecasts
        
2.1%300%+
14.0%200–300%
40.5%125–200%
36.4%100–125%
2.1%75–99%
2.8%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
0.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 14
2,449
Tue 15
1,084
Wed 16
916
Thu 17
956
Fri 18
1,040
Sat 19
1,632
Mon 21
1,383
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 3,832 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-14 13:30 UTC
Price
496.97
Forecasted level
498.10
Distance
0.23%
Furthest move
0.97%
Confidence
95%
427% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 1,251 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-15 13:30 UTC
Price
504.75
Forecasted level
503.17
Distance
0.31%
Furthest move
0.70%
Confidence
96%
223% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 2,105 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-18 14:20 UTC
Price
493.01
Forecasted level
494.17
Distance
0.24%
Furthest move
0.29%
Confidence
96%
125% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 1,329 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-14 15:23 UTC
Price
504.55
Forecasted level
502.87
Distance
0.33%
Furthest move
0.34%
Confidence
95%
101% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 64 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-14 19:10 UTC
Price
506.80
Forecasted level
507.95
Distance
0.23%
Furthest move
0.18%
Confidence
96%
80% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 53 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-14 13:30 UTC
Price
496.97
Forecasted level
496.43
Distance
0.11%
Furthest move
0.07%
Confidence
96%
68% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 39 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-14 19:30 UTC
Price
507.42
Forecasted level
508.65
Distance
0.24%
Furthest move
0.06%
Confidence
97%
25% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 787 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-18 14:51 UTC
Price
492.90
Forecasted level
492.26
Distance
0.13%
Furthest move
0.01%
Confidence
95%
10% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Microsoft forecasts, opened between 14 and 21 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 21 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s Microsoft forecasts

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