Weekly report · 26 October to 2 November 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Microsoft, 26 October to 2 November

Prepared November 2, 2026 · Report data

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Every Microsoft forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every Microsoft price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 26 October to Monday 2 November at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 7,825 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more40.1%
  2. went 200 to 300%13.5%
  3. went 125 to 200%23.4%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level16.3%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.0%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.7%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.6%
  8. went under 25%4.4%
of the forecasted distance
        

7,825 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above7,825 forecasts
        
40.1%300%+
13.5%200–300%
23.4%125–200%
16.3%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
4.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%58,420 forecasts
        
31.0%300%+
11.4%200–300%
25.0%125–200%
18.8%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
9.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%51,162 forecasts
        
26.1%300%+
8.8%200–300%
23.9%125–200%
22.9%100–125%
2.2%75–99%
2.2%50–75%
2.1%25–50%
11.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%43,287 forecasts
        
26.4%300%+
8.6%200–300%
22.3%125–200%
23.9%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.5%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
11.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%33,255 forecasts
        
20.1%300%+
9.7%200–300%
25.4%125–200%
26.3%100–125%
2.9%75–99%
2.9%50–75%
2.8%25–50%
9.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%27,879 forecasts
        
13.7%300%+
8.9%200–300%
25.1%125–200%
32.7%100–125%
3.6%75–99%
3.5%50–75%
3.8%25–50%
8.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%22,731 forecasts
        
12.7%300%+
7.7%200–300%
24.4%125–200%
35.3%100–125%
3.9%75–99%
3.6%50–75%
3.8%25–50%
8.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%21,020 forecasts
        
13.7%300%+
8.2%200–300%
24.0%125–200%
33.0%100–125%
4.3%75–99%
4.0%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
8.9%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the seven days.

▲ Could rise4,284 forecasts
        
36.6%300%+
14.2%200–300%
25.8%125–200%
18.0%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
3.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall3,541 forecasts
        
44.3%300%+
12.6%200–300%
20.3%125–200%
14.4%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
5.5%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes1,422 forecasts
        
70.5%300%+
4.4%200–300%
8.1%125–200%
2.1%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
13.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes1,312 forecasts
        
57.3%300%+
12.4%200–300%
16.5%125–200%
5.6%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
5.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour1,686 forecasts
        
45.1%300%+
17.2%200–300%
20.8%125–200%
11.4%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
3.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours317 forecasts
        
39.8%300%+
21.8%200–300%
20.2%125–200%
12.9%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
2.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours1,236 forecasts
        
23.2%300%+
15.9%200–300%
37.1%125–200%
19.7%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
1.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day1,790 forecasts
        
11.7%300%+
15.0%200–300%
33.2%125–200%
37.3%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
0.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days62 forecasts
        
1.6%300%+
6.4%200–300%
45.2%125–200%
46.8%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 26
1,178
Tue 27
334
Wed 28
1,918
Thu 29
1,437
Fri 30
803
Sat 31
1,632
Mon 2
523
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 3,136 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-28 20:35 UTC
Price
553.61
Forecasted level
555.22
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
2.06%
Confidence
96%
705% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 1,053 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:50 UTC
Price
521.00
Forecasted level
518.46
Distance
0.49%
Furthest move
1.13%
Confidence
96%
233% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 1,827 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:05 UTC
Price
524.78
Forecasted level
527.74
Distance
0.56%
Furthest move
0.76%
Confidence
96%
135% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 1,278 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:36 UTC
Price
528.18
Forecasted level
524.28
Distance
0.74%
Furthest move
0.79%
Confidence
95%
107% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 78 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-29 13:52 UTC
Price
531.20
Forecasted level
532.86
Distance
0.31%
Furthest move
0.25%
Confidence
96%
81% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 57 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:51 UTC
Price
522.17
Forecasted level
518.64
Distance
0.68%
Furthest move
0.35%
Confidence
96%
51% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 50 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-29 13:48 UTC
Price
532.05
Forecasted level
533.99
Distance
0.36%
Furthest move
0.09%
Confidence
95%
25% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 346 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-29 14:52 UTC
Price
520.60
Forecasted level
517.24
Distance
0.64%
Furthest move
0.04%
Confidence
96%
5% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Microsoft forecasts, opened between 26 October and 2 November 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 2 November.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s Microsoft forecasts

Other Microsoft reports