Every NVIDIA forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This report takes every NVIDIA price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 31 August to Monday 21 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?
Kunkafa’s confidence floor
The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.
Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 43,349 forecasts that settled came out like this:
went 300% or more32.7%
went 200 to 300%11.6%
went 125 to 200%23.5%
went 100 to 125%, reaching the level21.8%
went 75 to 99%1.1%
went 50 to 75%1.1%
went 25 to 50%1.0%
went under 25%7.2%
of the forecasted distance
43,349 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 12 days.
Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.
Confidence, and what it was worth
Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.
Confidence 95% and above43,349 forecasts
32.7%300%+
11.6%200–300%
23.5%125–200%
21.8%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
7.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%190,489 forecasts
29.9%300%+
9.6%200–300%
21.5%125–200%
22.3%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
11.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%147,992 forecasts
27.1%300%+
6.8%200–300%
19.0%125–200%
28.2%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.2%50–75%
2.2%25–50%
12.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%112,716 forecasts
24.2%300%+
8.0%200–300%
20.2%125–200%
28.8%100–125%
2.7%75–99%
2.7%50–75%
2.7%25–50%
10.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%87,469 forecasts
17.3%300%+
8.7%200–300%
21.7%125–200%
33.5%100–125%
3.2%75–99%
3.4%50–75%
3.4%25–50%
8.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%79,892 forecasts
14.6%300%+
7.3%200–300%
21.3%125–200%
36.7%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
4.0%50–75%
4.1%25–50%
8.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%67,182 forecasts
14.7%300%+
6.9%200–300%
19.4%125–200%
36.5%100–125%
3.9%75–99%
4.4%50–75%
4.6%25–50%
9.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%59,305 forecasts
14.4%300%+
6.8%200–300%
18.4%125–200%
35.8%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
4.6%50–75%
5.0%25–50%
10.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Both directions
A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the twenty days.
▲ Could rise22,496 forecasts
28.2%300%+
10.9%200–300%
23.9%125–200%
24.7%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
8.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall20,853 forecasts
37.6%300%+
12.3%200–300%
23.2%125–200%
18.5%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
6.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
By duration
Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 12 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.
Up to 5 minutes3,671 forecasts
70.4%300%+
2.5%200–300%
2.2%125–200%
0.9%100–125%
0.4%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.1%25–50%
23.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes6,798 forecasts
60.0%300%+
10.9%200–300%
11.5%125–200%
4.2%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
11.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour8,157 forecasts
40.5%300%+
16.7%200–300%
22.0%125–200%
10.0%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
8.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours855 forecasts
34.9%300%+
21.7%200–300%
24.3%125–200%
9.8%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
2.2%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
4.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours5,962 forecasts
16.1%300%+
15.8%200–300%
34.0%125–200%
22.9%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
5.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day7,957 forecasts
14.0%300%+
9.0%200–300%
33.8%125–200%
34.3%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
4.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days1,475 forecasts
5.4%300%+
8.9%200–300%
36.3%125–200%
46.1%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days5,760 forecasts
17.6%300%+
9.2%200–300%
24.1%125–200%
43.1%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days2,714 forecasts
27.3%300%+
11.4%200–300%
25.9%125–200%
35.4%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Day by day
The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Saturday to Monday.
What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time
Real forecasts from the period, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.
300% of the forecast distance or more · 14,171 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-08-30 17:28 UTC
Price
219.10
Forecasted level
221.02
Distance
0.87%
Furthest move
5.15%
Confidence
95%
589% of the forecasted distance
200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 5,009 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-04 22:59 UTC
Price
230.11
Forecasted level
228.10
Distance
0.87%
Furthest move
1.84%
Confidence
95%
210% of the forecasted distance
125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 10,206 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-11 16:35 UTC
Price
218.98
Forecasted level
219.74
Distance
0.35%
Furthest move
0.50%
Confidence
95%
144% of the forecasted distance
100 to 125%, reached the level · 9,433 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-04 08:29 UTC
Price
231.09
Forecasted level
229.75
Distance
0.58%
Furthest move
0.58%
Confidence
100%
101% of the forecasted distance
75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 483 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-11 19:30 UTC
Price
218.73
Forecasted level
219.54
Distance
0.37%
Furthest move
0.36%
Confidence
95%
97% of the forecasted distance
50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 483 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-03 12:30 UTC
Price
225.33
Forecasted level
224.75
Distance
0.26%
Furthest move
0.19%
Confidence
95%
73% of the forecasted distance
25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 431 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-11 19:10 UTC
Price
219.30
Forecasted level
220.03
Distance
0.33%
Furthest move
0.10%
Confidence
95%
30% of the forecasted distance
Under 25% of the forecast distance · 3,133 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-17 12:00 UTC
Price
217.58
Forecasted level
217.17
Distance
0.19%
Furthest move
0.01%
Confidence
95%
7% of the forecasted distance
How this was counted
Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live NVIDIA forecasts, opened between 31 August and 21 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 21 September.
“Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.
Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.