Weekly report · 28 September to 5 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on NVIDIA, 28 September to 5 October

Prepared October 5, 2026 · Report data

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Every NVIDIA forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every NVIDIA price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 28 September to Monday 5 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 15,893 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more42.9%
  2. went 200 to 300%12.1%
  3. went 125 to 200%21.1%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level13.3%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.9%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.8%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.8%
  8. went under 25%8.1%
of the forecasted distance
        

15,893 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 5 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above15,893 forecasts
        
42.9%300%+
12.1%200–300%
21.1%125–200%
13.3%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
8.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%63,947 forecasts
        
30.8%300%+
9.7%200–300%
22.3%125–200%
18.4%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
13.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%45,977 forecasts
        
24.8%300%+
7.6%200–300%
21.6%125–200%
25.0%100–125%
2.6%75–99%
2.7%50–75%
2.7%25–50%
13.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%37,694 forecasts
        
21.6%300%+
8.0%200–300%
21.3%125–200%
28.2%100–125%
3.2%75–99%
3.2%50–75%
3.3%25–50%
11.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%28,305 forecasts
        
15.3%300%+
8.7%200–300%
24.6%125–200%
31.7%100–125%
3.2%75–99%
3.4%50–75%
3.6%25–50%
9.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%25,310 forecasts
        
12.2%300%+
7.4%200–300%
23.9%125–200%
34.7%100–125%
3.7%75–99%
3.8%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
10.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%21,090 forecasts
        
13.1%300%+
7.2%200–300%
21.5%125–200%
33.8%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
5.1%25–50%
10.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%19,069 forecasts
        
13.6%300%+
6.9%200–300%
19.9%125–200%
34.2%100–125%
4.4%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
5.3%25–50%
11.2%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the seven days.

▲ Could rise7,399 forecasts
        
45.1%300%+
11.7%200–300%
20.7%125–200%
12.2%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
8.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall8,494 forecasts
        
41.0%300%+
12.4%200–300%
21.5%125–200%
14.3%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
8.1%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 5 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes2,706 forecasts
        
70.7%300%+
5.2%200–300%
4.6%125–200%
1.7%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
16.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes3,899 forecasts
        
58.3%300%+
10.4%200–300%
11.6%125–200%
4.9%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
11.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour4,021 forecasts
        
46.3%300%+
14.1%200–300%
21.4%125–200%
8.1%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
7.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours507 forecasts
        
37.3%300%+
17.5%200–300%
25.0%125–200%
11.6%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
3.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours2,282 forecasts
        
18.8%300%+
18.8%200–300%
34.4%125–200%
23.6%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
1.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day2,356 forecasts
        
6.5%300%+
11.4%200–300%
41.0%125–200%
38.9%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.2%25–50%
0.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days121 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
16.5%200–300%
36.4%125–200%
34.7%100–125%
3.3%75–99%
6.6%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
0.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days1 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
100.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 28
3,775
Tue 29
1,409
Wed 30
1,222
Thu 1
1,063
Fri 2
1,607
Sat 3
3,055
Mon 5
3,762
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 6,821 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-28 14:45 UTC
Price
229.39
Forecasted level
229.78
Distance
0.17%
Furthest move
0.65%
Confidence
98%
378% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 1,921 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 13:45 UTC
Price
232.12
Forecasted level
231.44
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
0.62%
Confidence
95%
211% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 3,357 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 15:05 UTC
Price
230.65
Forecasted level
231.53
Distance
0.38%
Furthest move
0.55%
Confidence
97%
144% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 2,118 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 12:50 UTC
Price
230.14
Forecasted level
229.33
Distance
0.35%
Furthest move
0.42%
Confidence
95%
119% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 133 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-28 13:40 UTC
Price
232.85
Forecasted level
233.34
Distance
0.21%
Furthest move
0.20%
Confidence
96%
95% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 127 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 11:50 UTC
Price
227.67
Forecasted level
227.03
Distance
0.28%
Furthest move
0.14%
Confidence
96%
51% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 129 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-28 13:36 UTC
Price
233.13
Forecasted level
233.60
Distance
0.20%
Furthest move
0.08%
Confidence
96%
40% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 1,287 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 08:35 UTC
Price
223.11
Forecasted level
222.69
Distance
0.19%
Furthest move
0.00%
Confidence
95%
0% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live NVIDIA forecasts, opened between 28 September and 5 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 5 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s NVIDIA forecasts

Other NVIDIA reports