Monthly report · 2 to 30 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on NVIDIA, 2 to 30 September

Prepared October 1, 2026 · Report data

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Every NVIDIA forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This monthly report takes every NVIDIA price forecast Kunkafa published from Wednesday 2 to Wednesday 30 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 70,525 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more29.9%
  2. went 200 to 300%11.0%
  3. went 125 to 200%23.7%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level26.1%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.9%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.0%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.9%
  8. went under 25%6.5%
of the forecasted distance
        

70,525 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 25 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above70,525 forecasts
        
29.9%300%+
11.0%200–300%
23.7%125–200%
26.1%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
6.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%296,496 forecasts
        
27.5%300%+
9.5%200–300%
22.1%125–200%
24.9%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
11.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%228,791 forecasts
        
24.2%300%+
6.7%200–300%
19.7%125–200%
31.0%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.3%50–75%
2.2%25–50%
11.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%178,086 forecasts
        
21.9%300%+
7.7%200–300%
20.2%125–200%
31.7%100–125%
2.7%75–99%
2.8%50–75%
2.8%25–50%
10.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%136,668 forecasts
        
14.2%300%+
7.8%200–300%
21.8%125–200%
37.2%100–125%
3.2%75–99%
3.4%50–75%
3.5%25–50%
8.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%124,201 forecasts
        
11.6%300%+
6.7%200–300%
21.8%125–200%
39.5%100–125%
3.7%75–99%
4.0%50–75%
4.1%25–50%
8.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%105,080 forecasts
        
12.1%300%+
6.3%200–300%
19.3%125–200%
39.8%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.7%25–50%
9.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%91,972 forecasts
        
12.4%300%+
6.3%200–300%
18.4%125–200%
38.7%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
4.6%50–75%
4.9%25–50%
10.6%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the twenty-six days.

▲ Could rise37,977 forecasts
        
26.7%300%+
10.0%200–300%
23.5%125–200%
30.0%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
6.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall32,548 forecasts
        
33.8%300%+
12.2%200–300%
23.9%125–200%
21.4%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
6.3%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 25 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes6,005 forecasts
        
70.2%300%+
3.5%200–300%
3.0%125–200%
1.2%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.2%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
21.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes10,324 forecasts
        
58.8%300%+
11.2%200–300%
11.9%125–200%
4.6%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
11.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour12,472 forecasts
        
42.2%300%+
16.1%200–300%
21.0%125–200%
9.6%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
8.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours1,441 forecasts
        
35.8%300%+
20.9%200–300%
24.9%125–200%
9.5%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
3.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours9,029 forecasts
        
17.1%300%+
16.7%200–300%
33.9%125–200%
23.1%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
4.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day11,696 forecasts
        
12.8%300%+
10.0%200–300%
35.2%125–200%
35.4%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
3.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days2,037 forecasts
        
4.8%300%+
8.3%200–300%
34.9%125–200%
45.6%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
2.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days8,414 forecasts
        
12.5%300%+
9.1%200–300%
28.1%125–200%
44.6%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
1.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days9,043 forecasts
        
9.0%300%+
4.8%200–300%
23.0%125–200%
61.7%100–125%
0.2%75–99%
0.2%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
0.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 days64 forecasts
        
54.7%300%+
45.3%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Tuesday to Wednesday.

Tue 1
0
Wed 2
8
Thu 3
684
Fri 4
2,619
Sat 5
4,869
Mon 7
6,071
Tue 8
844
Wed 9
1,511
Thu 10
2,869
Fri 11
3,210
Sat 12
4,415
Mon 14
8,174
Tue 15
2,877
Wed 16
1,563
Thu 17
1,764
Fri 18
2,717
Sat 19
3,455
Mon 21
4,918
Tue 22
1,580
Wed 23
1,393
Thu 24
1,307
Fri 25
1,290
Sat 26
3,523
Mon 28
6,400
Tue 29
1,409
Wed 30
1,055
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the month, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 21,111 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 5 days · 2026-09-02 16:31 UTC
Price
227.18
Forecasted level
228.20
Distance
0.45%
Furthest move
1.41%
Confidence
95%
316% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 7,750 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-04 22:59 UTC
Price
230.11
Forecasted level
228.10
Distance
0.87%
Furthest move
1.84%
Confidence
95%
210% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 16,710 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-13 23:45 UTC
Price
214.53
Forecasted level
215.75
Distance
0.57%
Furthest move
0.79%
Confidence
96%
139% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 18,375 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-11 14:00 UTC
Price
221.36
Forecasted level
219.87
Distance
0.67%
Furthest move
0.81%
Confidence
95%
120% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 670 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-11 19:30 UTC
Price
218.73
Forecasted level
219.54
Distance
0.37%
Furthest move
0.36%
Confidence
95%
97% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 692 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-03 12:30 UTC
Price
225.33
Forecasted level
224.75
Distance
0.26%
Furthest move
0.19%
Confidence
95%
73% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 645 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-11 19:10 UTC
Price
219.30
Forecasted level
220.03
Distance
0.33%
Furthest move
0.10%
Confidence
95%
30% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 4,572 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-17 11:45 UTC
Price
217.46
Forecasted level
216.54
Distance
0.42%
Furthest move
0.00%
Confidence
95%
0% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live NVIDIA forecasts, opened between 2 and 30 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this month’s NVIDIA forecasts

Other NVIDIA reports