Full report · 4 September to 30 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on S&P 500 Index, 4 September to 30 October

Prepared November 2, 2026 · Report data

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Every S&P 500 Index forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This report takes every S&P 500 Index price forecast Kunkafa published from Friday 4 September to Friday 30 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 55,982 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more14.7%
  2. went 200 to 300%12.1%
  3. went 125 to 200%31.1%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level36.0%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.5%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.4%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.3%
  8. went under 25%1.9%
of the forecasted distance
        

55,982 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 50 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above55,982 forecasts
        
14.7%300%+
12.1%200–300%
31.1%125–200%
36.0%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
1.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%261,161 forecasts
        
12.7%300%+
11.9%200–300%
30.8%125–200%
32.8%100–125%
2.8%75–99%
2.7%50–75%
2.6%25–50%
3.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%238,125 forecasts
        
10.7%300%+
9.1%200–300%
25.1%125–200%
40.7%100–125%
3.4%75–99%
3.4%50–75%
3.3%25–50%
4.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%193,030 forecasts
        
7.1%300%+
7.8%200–300%
25.1%125–200%
41.5%100–125%
3.5%75–99%
3.9%50–75%
5.1%25–50%
6.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%168,038 forecasts
        
5.5%300%+
6.7%200–300%
20.4%125–200%
46.3%100–125%
3.9%75–99%
5.4%50–75%
3.8%25–50%
8.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%160,837 forecasts
        
6.5%300%+
6.1%200–300%
20.2%125–200%
45.7%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
6.2%50–75%
4.4%25–50%
6.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%152,701 forecasts
        
6.1%300%+
5.6%200–300%
19.8%125–200%
46.5%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
6.3%25–50%
7.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%136,794 forecasts
        
5.9%300%+
5.4%200–300%
17.6%125–200%
46.8%100–125%
4.4%75–99%
4.9%50–75%
5.3%25–50%
9.7%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the 40 days.

▲ Could rise29,954 forecasts
        
14.2%300%+
12.9%200–300%
31.7%125–200%
34.7%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
1.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall26,028 forecasts
        
15.4%300%+
11.1%200–300%
30.4%125–200%
37.5%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
2.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 50 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes4,205 forecasts
        
61.8%300%+
14.0%200–300%
11.6%125–200%
4.3%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
4.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes7,529 forecasts
        
35.0%300%+
22.3%200–300%
24.9%125–200%
9.9%100–125%
2.1%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
2.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour7,460 forecasts
        
15.0%300%+
20.8%200–300%
37.7%125–200%
19.3%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
2.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours1,151 forecasts
        
22.7%300%+
23.9%200–300%
30.3%125–200%
13.9%100–125%
2.1%75–99%
1.9%50–75%
3.0%25–50%
2.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours9,084 forecasts
        
5.6%300%+
11.9%200–300%
41.0%125–200%
33.8%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
2.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day11,635 forecasts
        
3.6%300%+
7.5%200–300%
35.1%125–200%
46.2%100–125%
2.0%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
2.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days948 forecasts
        
2.9%300%+
5.5%200–300%
32.1%125–200%
55.6%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
1.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days6,936 forecasts
        
4.4%300%+
4.2%200–300%
27.3%125–200%
62.3%100–125%
0.3%75–99%
0.4%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
0.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days6,519 forecasts
        
5.7%300%+
5.3%200–300%
26.2%125–200%
61.6%100–125%
0.4%75–99%
0.3%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
0.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 days512 forecasts
        
0.4%300%+
3.1%200–300%
35.9%125–200%
60.6%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 50 days3 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
100.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Friday to Monday.

Fri 4
7
Tue 8
0
Wed 9
52
Fri 11
59
Mon 14
35
Tue 15
1,668
Wed 16
852
Thu 17
1,379
Fri 18
1,865
Mon 21
3,303
Tue 22
2,332
Wed 23
2,633
Thu 24
2,662
Fri 25
1,952
Mon 28
1,097
Tue 29
1,139
Wed 30
1,795
Thu 1
2,144
Fri 2
1,143
Mon 5
1,642
Tue 6
1,936
Wed 7
3,341
Thu 8
2,847
Fri 9
1,070
Mon 12
1,339
Tue 13
1,098
Wed 14
2,044
Thu 15
1,252
Fri 16
1,935
Mon 19
1,692
Tue 20
1,127
Wed 21
1,172
Thu 22
975
Fri 23
1,608
Mon 26
342
Tue 27
941
Wed 28
1,554
Thu 29
592
Fri 30
1,358
Mon 2
0
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the period, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in index points.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 8,252 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-01 16:00 UTC
Price
7,637.91
Forecasted level
7,651.73
Distance
0.18%
Furthest move
0.58%
Confidence
96%
320% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 6,752 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-17 12:00 UTC
Price
7,648.38
Forecasted level
7,634.96
Distance
0.18%
Furthest move
0.38%
Confidence
95%
218% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 17,408 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-24 16:00 UTC
Price
7,712.22
Forecasted level
7,739.53
Distance
0.35%
Furthest move
0.49%
Confidence
96%
137% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 20,154 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-10-15 15:00 UTC
Price
7,730.25
Forecasted level
7,701.93
Distance
0.37%
Furthest move
0.39%
Confidence
96%
106% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 848 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-22 07:45 UTC
Price
7,759.43
Forecasted level
7,787.83
Distance
0.37%
Furthest move
0.28%
Confidence
96%
76% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 756 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-24 15:45 UTC
Price
7,672.32
Forecasted level
7,661.07
Distance
0.15%
Furthest move
0.08%
Confidence
95%
53% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 723 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-22 11:45 UTC
Price
7,768.68
Forecasted level
7,798.43
Distance
0.38%
Furthest move
0.16%
Confidence
95%
42% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 1,089 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-24 12:35 UTC
Price
7,662.33
Forecasted level
7,649.63
Distance
0.17%
Furthest move
0.01%
Confidence
95%
5% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live S&P 500 Index forecasts, opened between 4 September and 30 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

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