Weekly report · 12 to 16 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on S&P 500 Index, 12 to 16 October

Prepared October 19, 2026 · Report data

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Every S&P 500 Index forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every S&P 500 Index price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 12 to Friday 16 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 5,521 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more25.1%
  2. went 200 to 300%15.4%
  3. went 125 to 200%28.4%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level23.0%
  5. went 75 to 99%2.0%
  6. went 50 to 75%2.0%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.7%
  8. went under 25%2.4%
of the forecasted distance
        

5,521 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above5,521 forecasts
        
25.1%300%+
15.4%200–300%
28.4%125–200%
23.0%100–125%
2.0%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
2.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%32,527 forecasts
        
14.5%300%+
13.4%200–300%
31.6%125–200%
29.2%100–125%
2.8%75–99%
2.7%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
3.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%22,946 forecasts
        
10.3%300%+
10.0%200–300%
29.4%125–200%
35.1%100–125%
3.7%75–99%
3.7%50–75%
3.4%25–50%
4.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%19,771 forecasts
        
10.4%300%+
10.6%200–300%
28.6%125–200%
35.6%100–125%
3.4%75–99%
3.5%50–75%
3.5%25–50%
4.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%15,199 forecasts
        
8.3%300%+
9.9%200–300%
28.2%125–200%
36.3%100–125%
4.6%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.0%25–50%
4.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%14,063 forecasts
        
7.3%300%+
8.0%200–300%
26.2%125–200%
39.5%100–125%
4.3%75–99%
4.6%50–75%
4.8%25–50%
5.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%11,527 forecasts
        
8.2%300%+
8.4%200–300%
26.3%125–200%
38.9%100–125%
4.5%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.5%25–50%
5.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%10,607 forecasts
        
7.0%300%+
9.0%200–300%
26.8%125–200%
39.2%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
5.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the five days.

▲ Could rise2,993 forecasts
        
17.9%300%+
14.5%200–300%
28.0%125–200%
27.8%100–125%
2.9%75–99%
3.1%50–75%
2.4%25–50%
3.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall2,528 forecasts
        
33.7%300%+
16.4%200–300%
28.9%125–200%
17.4%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
1.3%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes756 forecasts
        
66.1%300%+
12.2%200–300%
9.4%125–200%
4.0%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
0.4%25–50%
5.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes1,182 forecasts
        
40.4%300%+
20.7%200–300%
21.8%125–200%
9.7%100–125%
2.5%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
2.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour1,005 forecasts
        
23.1%300%+
21.3%200–300%
32.3%125–200%
15.6%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
2.4%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
1.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours230 forecasts
        
24.8%300%+
22.2%200–300%
29.1%125–200%
13.5%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
3.0%50–75%
3.5%25–50%
2.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours1,086 forecasts
        
9.2%300%+
14.4%200–300%
38.9%125–200%
30.3%100–125%
2.0%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
1.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day1,252 forecasts
        
1.8%300%+
7.0%200–300%
33.6%125–200%
48.3%100–125%
2.3%75–99%
3.3%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
1.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days10 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
60.0%125–200%
40.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Friday.

Mon 12
951
Tue 13
228
Wed 14
1,981
Thu 15
928
Fri 16
1,433
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in index points.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 1,388 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-15 13:45 UTC
Price
7,679.48
Forecasted level
7,685.79
Distance
0.08%
Furthest move
0.33%
Confidence
95%
404% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 847 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-15 14:00 UTC
Price
7,721.78
Forecasted level
7,714.33
Distance
0.10%
Furthest move
0.28%
Confidence
96%
289% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 1,570 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-16 19:05 UTC
Price
7,636.52
Forecasted level
7,646.81
Distance
0.13%
Furthest move
0.25%
Confidence
96%
184% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 1,270 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-15 15:10 UTC
Price
7,731.90
Forecasted level
7,721.37
Distance
0.14%
Furthest move
0.16%
Confidence
96%
114% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 111 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-14 14:37 UTC
Price
7,750.29
Forecasted level
7,758.43
Distance
0.11%
Furthest move
0.08%
Confidence
97%
75% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 111 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-15 14:45 UTC
Price
7,713.86
Forecasted level
7,706.31
Distance
0.10%
Furthest move
0.06%
Confidence
96%
58% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 91 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-14 15:26 UTC
Price
7,742.83
Forecasted level
7,749.53
Distance
0.09%
Furthest move
0.04%
Confidence
95%
44% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 133 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-15 13:45 UTC
Price
7,679.48
Forecasted level
7,670.96
Distance
0.11%
Furthest move
0.02%
Confidence
95%
14% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live S&P 500 Index forecasts, opened between 12 and 16 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 16 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s S&P 500 Index forecasts

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