Monthly report · 9 to 30 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on S&P 500 Index, 9 to 30 September

Prepared October 1, 2026 · Report data

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Every S&P 500 Index forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This monthly report takes every S&P 500 Index price forecast Kunkafa published from Wednesday 9 to Wednesday 30 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 17,714 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more14.2%
  2. went 200 to 300%12.9%
  3. went 125 to 200%32.8%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level32.1%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.9%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.7%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.7%
  8. went under 25%2.7%
of the forecasted distance
        

17,714 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 12 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above17,714 forecasts
        
14.2%300%+
12.9%200–300%
32.8%125–200%
32.1%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
2.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%90,435 forecasts
        
13.0%300%+
12.3%200–300%
32.5%125–200%
29.2%100–125%
3.0%75–99%
3.0%50–75%
2.8%25–50%
4.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%85,095 forecasts
        
16.6%300%+
10.8%200–300%
23.5%125–200%
34.0%100–125%
3.4%75–99%
3.5%50–75%
3.4%25–50%
4.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%70,377 forecasts
        
7.1%300%+
7.6%200–300%
26.2%125–200%
34.4%100–125%
3.5%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
7.7%25–50%
9.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%65,017 forecasts
        
5.3%300%+
5.8%200–300%
17.3%125–200%
42.6%100–125%
3.4%75–99%
8.0%50–75%
3.7%25–50%
13.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%58,447 forecasts
        
9.5%300%+
6.0%200–300%
19.0%125–200%
37.7%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
9.3%50–75%
4.4%25–50%
10.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%58,265 forecasts
        
8.9%300%+
6.0%200–300%
20.6%125–200%
36.7%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
9.4%25–50%
10.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%52,380 forecasts
        
9.7%300%+
5.3%200–300%
16.3%125–200%
38.1%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
5.0%50–75%
5.5%25–50%
16.3%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the sixteen days.

▲ Could rise8,500 forecasts
        
15.7%300%+
14.5%200–300%
33.2%125–200%
28.8%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
2.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall9,214 forecasts
        
12.8%300%+
11.3%200–300%
32.4%125–200%
35.1%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
3.1%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 12 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes1,314 forecasts
        
58.8%300%+
14.2%200–300%
13.3%125–200%
3.9%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
5.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes2,436 forecasts
        
33.1%300%+
22.7%200–300%
25.9%125–200%
9.4%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
2.2%25–50%
3.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour2,466 forecasts
        
14.3%300%+
19.5%200–300%
38.6%125–200%
19.8%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.9%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
2.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours324 forecasts
        
22.8%300%+
22.5%200–300%
29.6%125–200%
16.4%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
2.2%50–75%
2.8%25–50%
2.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours3,701 forecasts
        
5.4%300%+
11.2%200–300%
39.5%125–200%
35.1%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
3.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day4,646 forecasts
        
4.9%300%+
8.6%200–300%
34.4%125–200%
43.5%100–125%
2.5%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
2.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days460 forecasts
        
3.3%300%+
4.3%200–300%
31.5%125–200%
57.2%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.4%25–50%
1.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days1,765 forecasts
        
3.1%300%+
7.2%200–300%
31.8%125–200%
53.8%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
1.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days602 forecasts
        
2.2%300%+
3.8%200–300%
30.4%125–200%
55.0%100–125%
3.0%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
2.3%25–50%
1.5%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Tuesday to Wednesday.

Tue 8
0
Wed 9
52
Fri 11
59
Mon 14
35
Tue 15
1,655
Wed 16
761
Thu 17
1,279
Fri 18
1,827
Mon 21
2,296
Tue 22
2,220
Wed 23
1,700
Thu 24
2,247
Fri 25
1,196
Mon 28
636
Tue 29
881
Wed 30
870
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the month, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in index points.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 2,517 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-24 15:00 UTC
Price
7,672.32
Forecasted level
7,684.65
Distance
0.16%
Furthest move
0.61%
Confidence
95%
378% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 2,275 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-17 12:00 UTC
Price
7,648.38
Forecasted level
7,634.96
Distance
0.18%
Furthest move
0.38%
Confidence
95%
218% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 5,806 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-15 10:00 UTC
Price
7,596.38
Forecasted level
7,619.28
Distance
0.30%
Furthest move
0.39%
Confidence
95%
130% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 5,684 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-24 16:15 UTC
Price
7,701.69
Forecasted level
7,688.33
Distance
0.17%
Furthest move
0.21%
Confidence
96%
119% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 340 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-23 11:40 UTC
Price
7,755.58
Forecasted level
7,762.91
Distance
0.09%
Furthest move
0.08%
Confidence
96%
88% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 305 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-24 15:45 UTC
Price
7,672.32
Forecasted level
7,661.07
Distance
0.15%
Furthest move
0.08%
Confidence
95%
53% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 305 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-23 13:45 UTC
Price
7,735.58
Forecasted level
7,743.35
Distance
0.10%
Furthest move
0.05%
Confidence
95%
45% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 482 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-24 12:35 UTC
Price
7,662.33
Forecasted level
7,649.63
Distance
0.17%
Furthest move
0.01%
Confidence
95%
5% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live S&P 500 Index forecasts, opened between 9 and 30 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this month’s S&P 500 Index forecasts

Other S&P 500 Index reports