Weekly report · 26 to 30 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on S&P 500 Index, 26 to 30 October

Prepared November 2, 2026 · Report data

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Every S&P 500 Index forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every S&P 500 Index price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 26 to Friday 30 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 4,782 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more21.8%
  2. went 200 to 300%16.5%
  3. went 125 to 200%31.0%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level23.8%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.8%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.2%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.6%
  8. went under 25%2.3%
of the forecasted distance
        

4,782 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above4,782 forecasts
        
21.8%300%+
16.5%200–300%
31.0%125–200%
23.8%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
2.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%34,300 forecasts
        
13.6%300%+
13.2%200–300%
31.6%125–200%
27.9%100–125%
3.0%75–99%
3.2%50–75%
3.0%25–50%
4.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%31,016 forecasts
        
7.6%300%+
9.1%200–300%
29.5%125–200%
36.9%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
3.9%50–75%
3.8%25–50%
5.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%24,888 forecasts
        
7.3%300%+
8.4%200–300%
26.7%125–200%
39.7%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.1%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
5.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%20,761 forecasts
        
7.1%300%+
9.0%200–300%
26.7%125–200%
38.7%100–125%
4.7%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
4.4%25–50%
5.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%19,214 forecasts
        
5.7%300%+
7.6%200–300%
26.1%125–200%
41.4%100–125%
4.5%75–99%
4.8%50–75%
4.5%25–50%
5.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%16,098 forecasts
        
4.9%300%+
7.2%200–300%
24.4%125–200%
42.5%100–125%
5.1%75–99%
5.1%50–75%
5.0%25–50%
5.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%14,489 forecasts
        
4.1%300%+
7.3%200–300%
24.1%125–200%
41.6%100–125%
5.2%75–99%
5.5%50–75%
5.6%25–50%
6.6%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the six days.

▲ Could rise3,324 forecasts
        
18.4%300%+
15.6%200–300%
33.4%125–200%
25.7%100–125%
2.0%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
2.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall1,458 forecasts
        
29.6%300%+
18.5%200–300%
25.6%125–200%
19.5%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
2.9%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes707 forecasts
        
62.7%300%+
15.4%200–300%
10.7%125–200%
4.7%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
3.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes1,069 forecasts
        
34.5%300%+
22.5%200–300%
24.3%125–200%
11.4%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
2.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour1,106 forecasts
        
12.2%300%+
21.5%200–300%
38.4%125–200%
22.0%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
2.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours141 forecasts
        
27.7%300%+
23.4%200–300%
29.8%125–200%
7.8%100–125%
2.8%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
5.7%25–50%
2.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours903 forecasts
        
4.4%300%+
10.0%200–300%
41.9%125–200%
36.6%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
2.0%25–50%
2.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day853 forecasts
        
2.1%300%+
9.1%200–300%
35.1%125–200%
46.4%100–125%
2.6%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
1.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days3 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
66.7%125–200%
33.3%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 26
337
Tue 27
941
Wed 28
1,554
Thu 29
592
Fri 30
1,358
Mon 2
0
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in index points.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 1,044 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-26 13:45 UTC
Price
7,652.55
Forecasted level
7,657.81
Distance
0.07%
Furthest move
0.26%
Confidence
95%
380% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 788 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-26 14:00 UTC
Price
7,695.65
Forecasted level
7,687.76
Distance
0.10%
Furthest move
0.25%
Confidence
95%
239% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 1,482 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-30 18:15 UTC
Price
7,538.03
Forecasted level
7,548.85
Distance
0.14%
Furthest move
0.28%
Confidence
96%
192% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 1,137 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-26 17:00 UTC
Price
7,684.55
Forecasted level
7,671.03
Distance
0.18%
Furthest move
0.21%
Confidence
95%
119% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 88 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-30 05:09 UTC
Price
7,654.07
Forecasted level
7,661.81
Distance
0.10%
Furthest move
0.09%
Confidence
95%
93% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 59 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-26 13:57 UTC
Price
7,654.55
Forecasted level
7,650.50
Distance
0.05%
Furthest move
0.04%
Confidence
96%
74% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 74 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-26 15:15 UTC
Price
7,693.65
Forecasted level
7,702.60
Distance
0.12%
Furthest move
0.03%
Confidence
95%
28% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 110 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-30 19:45 UTC
Price
7,565.86
Forecasted level
7,558.38
Distance
0.10%
Furthest move
0.00%
Confidence
96%
1% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live S&P 500 Index forecasts, opened between 26 and 30 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s S&P 500 Index forecasts

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