Weekly report · 14 to 21 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on S&P 500 Index, 14 to 21 September

Prepared September 22, 2026 · Report data

Every S&P 500 Index forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every S&P 500 Index price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 14 to Monday 21 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 4,464 forecasts that settled came out like this:

went 300% or more14.6%
went 200 to 300%13.7%
went 125 to 200%35.3%
went 100 to 125%, reaching the level30.6%
went 75 to 99%1.4%
went 50 to 75%1.3%
went 25 to 50%1.1%
went under 25%2.0%

of the forecasted distance

4,464 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 1 day.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above4,464 forecasts

14.6%300%+

13.7%200–300%

35.3%125–200%

30.6%100–125%

1.4%75–99%

1.3%50–75%

1.1%25–50%

2.0%<25%

of the forecasted level

Confidence 90 to 95%25,417 forecasts

15.0%300%+

13.8%200–300%

30.0%125–200%

27.1%100–125%

3.1%75–99%

3.0%50–75%

3.1%25–50%

4.9%<25%

of the forecasted level

Confidence 85 to 90%32,485 forecasts

31.3%300%+

14.1%200–300%

19.9%125–200%

22.9%100–125%

2.4%75–99%

2.6%50–75%

2.8%25–50%

4.0%<25%

of the forecasted level

Confidence 80 to 85%22,018 forecasts

8.5%300%+

8.8%200–300%

22.1%125–200%

29.4%100–125%

3.2%75–99%

5.0%50–75%

3.6%25–50%

19.4%<25%

of the forecasted level

Confidence 75 to 80%22,456 forecasts

4.8%300%+

5.1%200–300%

15.2%125–200%

22.8%100–125%

3.0%75–99%

16.2%50–75%

3.4%25–50%

29.5%<25%

of the forecasted level

Confidence 70 to 75%18,853 forecasts

18.4%300%+

5.2%200–300%

18.8%125–200%

28.8%100–125%

3.2%75–99%

3.6%50–75%

3.5%25–50%

18.5%<25%

of the forecasted level

Confidence 65 to 70%21,061 forecasts

16.5%300%+

5.9%200–300%

26.9%125–200%

24.1%100–125%

2.6%75–99%

2.7%50–75%

3.1%25–50%

18.2%<25%

of the forecasted level

Confidence 60 to 65%17,185 forecasts

21.2%300%+

4.5%200–300%

15.1%125–200%

25.7%100–125%

2.8%75–99%

5.2%50–75%

5.6%25–50%

19.9%<25%

of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the six days.

▲ Could rise2,276 forecasts

13.6%300%+

15.6%200–300%

36.1%125–200%

29.2%100–125%

1.2%75–99%

1.3%50–75%

1.1%25–50%

1.9%<25%

of the forecasted level

▼ Could fall2,188 forecasts

15.5%300%+

11.8%200–300%

34.4%125–200%

32.0%100–125%

1.6%75–99%

1.4%50–75%

1.1%25–50%

2.2%<25%

of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to a day. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes300 forecasts

63.3%300%+

12.0%200–300%

10.0%125–200%

4.7%100–125%

2.0%75–99%

0.7%50–75%

1.3%25–50%

6.0%<25%

of the forecasted level

Up to 25 minutes586 forecasts

32.6%300%+

21.7%200–300%

28.5%125–200%

9.4%100–125%

1.7%75–99%

1.9%50–75%

1.3%25–50%

2.9%<25%

of the forecasted level

Up to 1 hour736 forecasts

13.6%300%+

19.3%200–300%

40.2%125–200%

21.6%100–125%

1.4%75–99%

1.6%50–75%

0.9%25–50%

1.4%<25%

of the forecasted level

Up to 2 hours51 forecasts

19.6%300%+

17.7%200–300%

45.1%125–200%

13.7%100–125%

0.0%75–99%

3.9%50–75%

0.0%25–50%

0.0%<25%

of the forecasted level

Up to 6 hours1,147 forecasts

5.1%300%+

12.7%200–300%

41.9%125–200%

35.4%100–125%

1.0%75–99%

1.6%50–75%

1.0%25–50%

1.3%<25%

of the forecasted level

Up to 1 day1,644 forecasts

6.2%300%+

9.3%200–300%

35.1%125–200%

44.0%100–125%

1.6%75–99%

0.9%50–75%

1.0%25–50%

1.9%<25%

of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 14

13

Tue 15

1,535

Wed 16

401

Thu 17

1,239

Fri 18

1,275

Mon 21

1

300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%

of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in index points.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 650 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-18 13:00 UTC

Price

7,625.84

Forecasted level

7,633.19

Distance

0.10%

Furthest move

0.30%

Confidence

95%

307% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 613 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-15 14:30 UTC

Price

7,583.06

Forecasted level

7,578.59

Distance

0.06%

Furthest move

0.14%

Confidence

95%

230% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 1,574 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-17 14:55 UTC

Price

7,618.61

Forecasted level

7,626.65

Distance

0.11%

Furthest move

0.13%

Confidence

96%

125% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 1,365 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-17 09:10 UTC

Price

7,617.63

Forecasted level

7,612.22

Distance

0.07%

Furthest move

0.07%

Confidence

95%

102% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 64 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-15 12:45 UTC

Price

7,617.63

Forecasted level

7,621.60

Distance

0.05%

Furthest move

0.05%

Confidence

95%

97% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 60 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-16 19:00 UTC

Price

7,552.51

Forecasted level

7,544.91

Distance

0.10%

Furthest move

0.06%

Confidence

96%

62% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 47 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-15 13:30 UTC

Price

7,610.88

Forecasted level

7,617.55

Distance

0.09%

Furthest move

0.03%

Confidence

95%

33% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 91 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-17 06:34 UTC

Price

7,603.00

Forecasted level

7,597.09

Distance

0.08%

Furthest move

0.01%

Confidence

95%

14% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live S&P 500 Index forecasts, opened between 14 and 21 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 21 September.
“Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s S&P 500 Index forecasts

Other S&P 500 Index reports

Full · 9 to 21 September 2026 · 6,690 forecasts