Every SpaceX forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This report takes every SpaceX price forecast Kunkafa published from Saturday 29 August to Monday 21 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?
Kunkafa’s confidence floor
The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.
Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 53,623 forecasts that settled came out like this:
went 300% or more41.0%
went 200 to 300%12.2%
went 125 to 200%21.0%
went 100 to 125%, reaching the level16.2%
went 75 to 99%1.0%
went 50 to 75%0.9%
went 25 to 50%1.0%
went under 25%6.7%
of the forecasted distance
53,623 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 12 days.
Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.
Confidence, and what it was worth
Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.
Confidence 95% and above53,623 forecasts
41.0%300%+
12.2%200–300%
21.0%125–200%
16.2%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
6.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%177,111 forecasts
29.3%300%+
10.6%200–300%
23.4%125–200%
21.0%100–125%
1.9%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.1%25–50%
9.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%133,236 forecasts
26.4%300%+
8.1%200–300%
21.0%125–200%
26.2%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.5%50–75%
2.7%25–50%
10.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%104,794 forecasts
21.0%300%+
8.6%200–300%
22.7%125–200%
30.3%100–125%
2.9%75–99%
3.0%50–75%
2.9%25–50%
8.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%81,791 forecasts
14.4%300%+
8.8%200–300%
24.1%125–200%
34.8%100–125%
3.2%75–99%
3.5%50–75%
3.7%25–50%
7.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%79,966 forecasts
13.6%300%+
7.3%200–300%
22.6%125–200%
37.7%100–125%
3.3%75–99%
3.6%50–75%
4.1%25–50%
7.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%70,450 forecasts
13.8%300%+
6.6%200–300%
20.9%125–200%
38.9%100–125%
3.5%75–99%
3.8%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
8.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%65,648 forecasts
13.7%300%+
7.4%200–300%
20.3%125–200%
37.6%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
4.0%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
9.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Both directions
A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the twenty days.
▲ Could rise24,833 forecasts
44.8%300%+
12.3%200–300%
18.6%125–200%
14.1%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
7.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall28,790 forecasts
37.7%300%+
12.1%200–300%
23.0%125–200%
18.1%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
6.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
By duration
Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 12 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.
Up to 5 minutes6,882 forecasts
71.5%300%+
6.0%200–300%
4.9%125–200%
1.9%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
13.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes12,143 forecasts
55.7%300%+
12.4%200–300%
13.0%125–200%
5.2%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
10.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour9,074 forecasts
45.1%300%+
15.6%200–300%
19.9%125–200%
9.1%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
7.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours1,324 forecasts
36.6%300%+
19.8%200–300%
23.3%125–200%
9.7%100–125%
2.1%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.3%25–50%
4.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours6,443 forecasts
19.4%300%+
16.0%200–300%
35.0%125–200%
21.2%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
4.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day9,586 forecasts
19.7%300%+
12.9%200–300%
30.8%125–200%
28.5%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
3.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days640 forecasts
9.7%300%+
8.9%200–300%
33.6%125–200%
46.7%100–125%
0.2%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.5%25–50%
0.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days5,582 forecasts
32.3%300%+
8.9%200–300%
24.5%125–200%
34.3%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days1,949 forecasts
36.4%300%+
6.9%200–300%
21.5%125–200%
35.2%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Day by day
The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Saturday to Monday.
What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time
Real forecasts from the period, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.
300% of the forecast distance or more · 21,973 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 12 days · 2026-08-30 04:26 UTC
Price
140.62
Forecasted level
142.21
Distance
1.13%
Furthest move
8.71%
Confidence
96%
771% of the forecasted distance
200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 6,544 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 17:00 UTC
Price
150.85
Forecasted level
150.08
Distance
0.51%
Furthest move
1.15%
Confidence
97%
226% of the forecasted distance
125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 11,249 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 21:45 UTC
Price
149.29
Forecasted level
150.34
Distance
0.70%
Furthest move
0.90%
Confidence
95%
128% of the forecasted distance
100 to 125%, reached the level · 8,708 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-05 03:55 UTC
Price
148.45
Forecasted level
146.45
Distance
1.35%
Furthest move
1.36%
Confidence
95%
101% of the forecasted distance
75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 540 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 17:30 UTC
Price
151.52
Forecasted level
152.32
Distance
0.53%
Furthest move
0.42%
Confidence
96%
78% of the forecasted distance
50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 482 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-03 13:30 UTC
Price
144.35
Forecasted level
143.80
Distance
0.38%
Furthest move
0.27%
Confidence
95%
71% of the forecasted distance
25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 553 forecasts
▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 16:50 UTC
Price
151.90
Forecasted level
152.90
Distance
0.66%
Furthest move
0.16%
Confidence
95%
25% of the forecasted distance
Under 25% of the forecast distance · 3,574 forecasts
▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-11 16:07 UTC
Price
148.56
Forecasted level
147.84
Distance
0.49%
Furthest move
0.12%
Confidence
95%
24% of the forecasted distance
How this was counted
Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live SpaceX forecasts, opened between 29 August and 21 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 21 September.
“Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.
Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.