Monthly report · 2 to 30 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on SpaceX, 2 to 30 September

Prepared October 1, 2026 · Report data

Share on XShare on LinkedInShare on WhatsAppShare on Telegram

Every SpaceX forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This monthly report takes every SpaceX price forecast Kunkafa published from Wednesday 2 to Wednesday 30 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 89,166 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more38.2%
  2. went 200 to 300%12.5%
  3. went 125 to 200%22.5%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level18.2%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.9%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.8%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.9%
  8. went under 25%6.0%
of the forecasted distance
        

89,166 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 25 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above89,166 forecasts
        
38.2%300%+
12.5%200–300%
22.5%125–200%
18.2%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
6.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%276,716 forecasts
        
27.9%300%+
10.3%200–300%
23.9%125–200%
22.9%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.9%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
9.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%210,464 forecasts
        
23.6%300%+
7.9%200–300%
21.5%125–200%
29.2%100–125%
2.4%75–99%
2.5%50–75%
2.6%25–50%
10.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%160,104 forecasts
        
17.3%300%+
8.6%200–300%
23.2%125–200%
33.1%100–125%
2.9%75–99%
3.3%50–75%
3.2%25–50%
8.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%126,743 forecasts
        
12.1%300%+
8.4%200–300%
24.0%125–200%
37.8%100–125%
3.1%75–99%
3.5%50–75%
3.8%25–50%
7.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%122,861 forecasts
        
11.8%300%+
7.0%200–300%
22.4%125–200%
39.8%100–125%
3.5%75–99%
3.7%50–75%
4.2%25–50%
7.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%107,551 forecasts
        
12.1%300%+
6.4%200–300%
20.6%125–200%
41.0%100–125%
3.7%75–99%
3.9%50–75%
4.4%25–50%
7.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%101,824 forecasts
        
11.6%300%+
6.8%200–300%
19.8%125–200%
40.9%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.2%25–50%
8.5%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the twenty-six days.

▲ Could rise40,294 forecasts
        
39.3%300%+
13.0%200–300%
21.0%125–200%
17.2%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
6.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall48,872 forecasts
        
37.3%300%+
12.2%200–300%
23.6%125–200%
19.1%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
5.3%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 25 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes11,334 forecasts
        
72.7%300%+
5.8%200–300%
4.8%125–200%
1.8%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
12.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes20,266 forecasts
        
55.7%300%+
12.2%200–300%
13.8%125–200%
5.5%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
9.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour15,513 forecasts
        
46.0%300%+
17.1%200–300%
19.2%125–200%
8.5%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
6.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours2,346 forecasts
        
39.5%300%+
18.7%200–300%
23.1%125–200%
9.5%100–125%
1.8%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
2.1%25–50%
3.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours10,921 forecasts
        
19.1%300%+
16.9%200–300%
35.7%125–200%
21.1%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
3.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day14,102 forecasts
        
18.2%300%+
12.4%200–300%
32.4%125–200%
30.5%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
2.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days1,097 forecasts
        
9.1%300%+
10.7%200–300%
35.3%125–200%
44.2%100–125%
0.1%75–99%
0.1%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
0.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days8,644 forecasts
        
16.3%300%+
10.7%200–300%
31.6%125–200%
41.4%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 12 days4,930 forecasts
        
6.6%300%+
6.0%200–300%
31.9%125–200%
55.5%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 days13 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
100.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Tuesday to Wednesday.

Tue 1
0
Wed 2
80
Thu 3
611
Fri 4
1,871
Sat 5
4,066
Mon 7
3,758
Tue 8
794
Wed 9
1,876
Thu 10
2,522
Fri 11
2,196
Sat 12
4,859
Mon 14
11,736
Tue 15
2,851
Wed 16
874
Thu 17
2,491
Fri 18
3,754
Sat 19
5,150
Mon 21
10,458
Tue 22
2,412
Wed 23
2,662
Thu 24
2,382
Fri 25
2,736
Sat 26
4,458
Mon 28
9,422
Tue 29
2,652
Wed 30
2,495
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the month, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 34,084 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 15:45 UTC
Price
149.51
Forecasted level
150.50
Distance
0.66%
Furthest move
2.25%
Confidence
96%
339% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 11,158 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 17:00 UTC
Price
150.85
Forecasted level
150.08
Distance
0.51%
Furthest move
1.15%
Confidence
97%
226% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 20,017 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 21:45 UTC
Price
149.29
Forecasted level
150.34
Distance
0.70%
Furthest move
0.90%
Confidence
95%
128% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 16,272 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 12 days · 2026-09-05 03:55 UTC
Price
148.45
Forecasted level
146.45
Distance
1.35%
Furthest move
1.36%
Confidence
95%
101% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 809 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 17:30 UTC
Price
151.52
Forecasted level
152.32
Distance
0.53%
Furthest move
0.42%
Confidence
96%
78% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 716 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-03 13:30 UTC
Price
144.35
Forecasted level
143.80
Distance
0.38%
Furthest move
0.27%
Confidence
95%
71% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 772 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-03 16:50 UTC
Price
151.90
Forecasted level
152.90
Distance
0.66%
Furthest move
0.16%
Confidence
95%
25% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 5,338 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 25 days · 2026-09-02 22:05 UTC
Price
140.38
Forecasted level
139.66
Distance
0.51%
Furthest move
0.04%
Confidence
96%
6% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live SpaceX forecasts, opened between 2 and 30 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 30 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this month’s SpaceX forecasts

Other SpaceX reports