Weekly report · 19 to 26 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on SpaceX, 19 to 26 October

Prepared October 26, 2026 · Report data

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Every SpaceX forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every SpaceX price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 19 to Monday 26 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 11,460 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more31.4%
  2. went 200 to 300%13.5%
  3. went 125 to 200%26.0%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level21.1%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.3%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.5%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.5%
  8. went under 25%3.7%
of the forecasted distance
        

11,460 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above11,460 forecasts
        
31.4%300%+
13.5%200–300%
26.0%125–200%
21.1%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
3.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%55,658 forecasts
        
18.3%300%+
12.7%200–300%
29.6%125–200%
25.6%100–125%
2.5%75–99%
2.5%50–75%
2.6%25–50%
6.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%44,910 forecasts
        
15.0%300%+
8.7%200–300%
26.0%125–200%
31.2%100–125%
3.5%75–99%
3.8%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
7.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%38,120 forecasts
        
13.2%300%+
8.4%200–300%
24.7%125–200%
33.5%100–125%
3.5%75–99%
3.8%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
8.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%29,265 forecasts
        
10.0%300%+
9.5%200–300%
26.6%125–200%
34.4%100–125%
3.6%75–99%
3.8%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
7.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%28,081 forecasts
        
7.9%300%+
8.3%200–300%
25.7%125–200%
37.1%100–125%
4.0%75–99%
4.6%50–75%
4.7%25–50%
7.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%24,304 forecasts
        
7.8%300%+
7.4%200–300%
24.5%125–200%
38.5%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
4.9%25–50%
8.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%21,888 forecasts
        
7.5%300%+
7.9%200–300%
24.0%125–200%
37.0%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
5.3%25–50%
9.6%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the seven days.

▲ Could rise6,540 forecasts
        
27.4%300%+
13.1%200–300%
27.8%125–200%
23.7%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
3.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall4,920 forecasts
        
36.6%300%+
14.0%200–300%
23.7%125–200%
17.7%100–125%
1.2%75–99%
1.6%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
3.9%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes2,723 forecasts
        
62.6%300%+
13.0%200–300%
10.1%125–200%
4.0%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
1.8%25–50%
5.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes2,538 forecasts
        
42.5%300%+
17.8%200–300%
21.8%125–200%
8.8%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
4.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour1,574 forecasts
        
27.5%300%+
18.7%200–300%
30.9%125–200%
15.3%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.7%50–75%
1.7%25–50%
2.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours310 forecasts
        
30.3%300%+
19.4%200–300%
30.6%125–200%
10.0%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
2.3%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
4.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours1,608 forecasts
        
9.3%300%+
13.1%200–300%
37.3%125–200%
30.9%100–125%
1.4%75–99%
2.2%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
3.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day2,653 forecasts
        
4.9%300%+
6.4%200–300%
35.9%125–200%
48.7%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
1.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days54 forecasts
        
1.9%300%+
7.4%200–300%
37.0%125–200%
53.7%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 19
1,381
Tue 20
2,187
Wed 21
1,920
Thu 22
2,346
Fri 23
1,188
Sat 24
1,591
Mon 26
847
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 3,592 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-19 16:45 UTC
Price
149.02
Forecasted level
150.12
Distance
0.74%
Furthest move
2.31%
Confidence
96%
313% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 1,546 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-20 21:10 UTC
Price
155.80
Forecasted level
154.95
Distance
0.54%
Furthest move
1.49%
Confidence
95%
274% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 2,981 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-20 13:30 UTC
Price
143.86
Forecasted level
145.08
Distance
0.85%
Furthest move
1.28%
Confidence
96%
151% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 2,420 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-21 12:36 UTC
Price
161.77
Forecasted level
160.65
Distance
0.69%
Furthest move
0.79%
Confidence
95%
115% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 154 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-22 15:15 UTC
Price
150.36
Forecasted level
151.39
Distance
0.69%
Furthest move
0.69%
Confidence
95%
99% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 171 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-20 23:47 UTC
Price
159.42
Forecasted level
158.77
Distance
0.41%
Furthest move
0.25%
Confidence
95%
61% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 173 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-22 14:00 UTC
Price
151.69
Forecasted level
152.67
Distance
0.65%
Furthest move
0.24%
Confidence
96%
37% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 423 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-20 22:00 UTC
Price
157.58
Forecasted level
156.88
Distance
0.44%
Furthest move
0.08%
Confidence
96%
18% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live SpaceX forecasts, opened between 19 and 26 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 26 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s SpaceX forecasts

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