Weekly report · 14 to 21 September 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on SpaceX, 14 to 21 September

Prepared September 22, 2026 · Report data

Every SpaceX forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every SpaceX price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 14 to Monday 21 September at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 20,539 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more41.5%
  2. went 200 to 300%12.9%
  3. went 125 to 200%20.9%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level13.2%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.1%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.9%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.2%
  8. went under 25%8.3%
of the forecasted distance
        

20,539 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above20,539 forecasts
        
41.5%300%+
12.9%200–300%
20.9%125–200%
13.2%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.2%25–50%
8.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%63,988 forecasts
        
29.5%300%+
10.7%200–300%
23.1%125–200%
18.7%100–125%
2.1%75–99%
2.1%50–75%
2.2%25–50%
11.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%46,353 forecasts
        
27.0%300%+
8.6%200–300%
20.6%125–200%
22.6%100–125%
2.5%75–99%
2.6%50–75%
2.9%25–50%
13.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%34,509 forecasts
        
19.1%300%+
9.1%200–300%
23.1%125–200%
27.8%100–125%
3.3%75–99%
3.6%50–75%
3.4%25–50%
10.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%24,917 forecasts
        
12.3%300%+
9.8%200–300%
25.2%125–200%
31.1%100–125%
3.7%75–99%
4.1%50–75%
4.4%25–50%
9.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%23,767 forecasts
        
11.8%300%+
8.3%200–300%
24.1%125–200%
33.5%100–125%
3.5%75–99%
4.2%50–75%
4.8%25–50%
9.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%21,196 forecasts
        
13.6%300%+
7.0%200–300%
22.0%125–200%
33.2%100–125%
3.6%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
5.0%25–50%
11.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%20,131 forecasts
        
13.2%300%+
7.5%200–300%
21.5%125–200%
32.3%100–125%
4.3%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
4.7%25–50%
12.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the seven days.

▲ Could rise9,724 forecasts
        
43.0%300%+
13.9%200–300%
19.2%125–200%
12.9%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
7.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall10,815 forecasts
        
40.1%300%+
12.0%200–300%
22.5%125–200%
13.5%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
1.3%25–50%
8.6%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes3,213 forecasts
        
71.3%300%+
4.7%200–300%
4.4%125–200%
2.1%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
15.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes5,578 forecasts
        
55.5%300%+
13.2%200–300%
11.9%125–200%
4.5%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
12.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour4,031 forecasts
        
43.7%300%+
14.5%200–300%
21.4%125–200%
10.5%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.5%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
7.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours632 forecasts
        
35.9%300%+
19.5%200–300%
22.8%125–200%
9.2%100–125%
2.5%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.7%25–50%
5.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours2,832 forecasts
        
15.5%300%+
16.0%200–300%
37.1%125–200%
23.6%100–125%
1.1%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.9%25–50%
3.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day4,096 forecasts
        
16.8%300%+
14.0%200–300%
33.5%125–200%
29.2%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
2.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days157 forecasts
        
10.2%300%+
13.4%200–300%
44.6%125–200%
31.8%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 14
3,656
Tue 15
2,811
Wed 16
851
Thu 17
1,758
Fri 18
2,426
Sat 19
4,884
Mon 21
4,153
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 8,521 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-18 13:45 UTC
Price
152.46
Forecasted level
153.03
Distance
0.38%
Furthest move
1.60%
Confidence
96%
425% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 2,643 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-15 14:10 UTC
Price
146.74
Forecasted level
146.31
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
0.65%
Confidence
95%
223% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 4,302 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-17 15:30 UTC
Price
153.98
Forecasted level
154.55
Distance
0.37%
Furthest move
0.49%
Confidence
95%
134% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 2,717 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-14 13:45 UTC
Price
148.58
Forecasted level
147.88
Distance
0.47%
Furthest move
0.48%
Confidence
96%
103% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 224 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-15 14:15 UTC
Price
145.87
Forecasted level
146.27
Distance
0.27%
Furthest move
0.25%
Confidence
96%
93% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 181 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-17 02:40 UTC
Price
152.37
Forecasted level
151.95
Distance
0.28%
Furthest move
0.14%
Confidence
95%
52% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 251 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-15 15:45 UTC
Price
144.77
Forecasted level
145.19
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
0.11%
Confidence
95%
37% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 1,700 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-16 10:21 UTC
Price
144.26
Forecasted level
143.98
Distance
0.19%
Furthest move
0.03%
Confidence
95%
17% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live SpaceX forecasts, opened between 14 and 21 September 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 21 September.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

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