Weekly report · 28 September to 5 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on SpaceX, 28 September to 5 October

Prepared October 5, 2026 · Report data

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Every SpaceX forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every SpaceX price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 28 September to Monday 5 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 26,652 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more47.5%
  2. went 200 to 300%12.4%
  3. went 125 to 200%18.8%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level10.4%
  5. went 75 to 99%0.7%
  6. went 50 to 75%0.8%
  7. went 25 to 50%0.7%
  8. went under 25%8.7%
of the forecasted distance
        

26,652 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above26,652 forecasts
        
47.5%300%+
12.4%200–300%
18.8%125–200%
10.4%100–125%
0.7%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
8.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%63,047 forecasts
        
30.6%300%+
10.1%200–300%
22.8%125–200%
19.4%100–125%
2.1%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
2.0%25–50%
11.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%45,187 forecasts
        
27.1%300%+
8.4%200–300%
19.9%125–200%
22.4%100–125%
2.6%75–99%
3.1%50–75%
3.1%25–50%
13.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%34,858 forecasts
        
19.4%300%+
9.2%200–300%
23.0%125–200%
26.8%100–125%
3.4%75–99%
3.9%50–75%
4.1%25–50%
10.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%25,681 forecasts
        
13.4%300%+
9.2%200–300%
25.3%125–200%
32.1%100–125%
3.9%75–99%
4.0%50–75%
4.3%25–50%
7.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%22,895 forecasts
        
13.0%300%+
7.8%200–300%
24.0%125–200%
32.9%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.4%50–75%
4.9%25–50%
8.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%18,768 forecasts
        
14.0%300%+
8.3%200–300%
21.8%125–200%
31.4%100–125%
4.2%75–99%
4.6%50–75%
5.4%25–50%
10.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%18,467 forecasts
        
14.4%300%+
8.4%200–300%
21.3%125–200%
30.6%100–125%
4.1%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
5.6%25–50%
11.1%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the seven days.

▲ Could rise11,738 forecasts
        
49.0%300%+
13.0%200–300%
19.1%125–200%
10.5%100–125%
0.6%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
6.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall14,914 forecasts
        
46.3%300%+
11.9%200–300%
18.5%125–200%
10.3%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
0.9%50–75%
0.7%25–50%
10.5%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes5,279 forecasts
        
71.0%300%+
5.1%200–300%
4.3%125–200%
1.7%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
0.7%50–75%
0.6%25–50%
15.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes7,755 forecasts
        
58.0%300%+
9.8%200–300%
12.1%125–200%
5.1%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
0.8%25–50%
12.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour5,786 forecasts
        
45.9%300%+
18.2%200–300%
20.5%125–200%
7.1%100–125%
0.4%75–99%
0.6%50–75%
0.4%25–50%
6.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours786 forecasts
        
41.1%300%+
16.8%200–300%
22.6%125–200%
10.3%100–125%
2.3%75–99%
1.5%50–75%
2.3%25–50%
3.1%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours3,699 forecasts
        
20.9%300%+
17.1%200–300%
36.4%125–200%
20.1%100–125%
1.0%75–99%
0.8%50–75%
0.9%25–50%
2.8%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day3,134 forecasts
        
20.0%300%+
13.7%200–300%
33.3%125–200%
30.9%100–125%
0.5%75–99%
0.4%50–75%
0.3%25–50%
0.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days213 forecasts
        
13.6%300%+
11.3%200–300%
41.3%125–200%
33.8%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Monday.

Mon 28
4,116
Tue 29
2,655
Wed 30
2,838
Thu 1
2,114
Fri 2
3,096
Sat 3
5,930
Mon 5
5,903
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in USD.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 12,660 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-28 13:07 UTC
Price
147.40
Forecasted level
147.91
Distance
0.35%
Furthest move
1.19%
Confidence
95%
345% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 3,303 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-28 14:00 UTC
Price
149.80
Forecasted level
149.36
Distance
0.29%
Furthest move
0.82%
Confidence
96%
280% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 5,006 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-28 14:40 UTC
Price
147.21
Forecasted level
147.81
Distance
0.41%
Furthest move
0.80%
Confidence
95%
197% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 2,760 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-09-29 19:45 UTC
Price
149.39
Forecasted level
148.81
Distance
0.39%
Furthest move
0.45%
Confidence
95%
115% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 196 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-09-28 16:15 UTC
Price
147.91
Forecasted level
148.21
Distance
0.20%
Furthest move
0.20%
Confidence
95%
99% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 221 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-09-28 14:08 UTC
Price
146.48
Forecasted level
146.01
Distance
0.32%
Furthest move
0.22%
Confidence
95%
67% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 176 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-01 15:15 UTC
Price
151.66
Forecasted level
151.87
Distance
0.14%
Furthest move
0.06%
Confidence
96%
42% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 2,330 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-02 18:55 UTC
Price
158.75
Forecasted level
158.27
Distance
0.30%
Furthest move
0.07%
Confidence
95%
22% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live SpaceX forecasts, opened between 28 September and 5 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 5 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s SpaceX forecasts

Other SpaceX reports