Weekly report · 5 to 9 October 2026

Here is how Kunkafa’s AI performed on Nasdaq 100, 5 to 9 October

Prepared October 12, 2026 · Report data

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Every Nasdaq 100 forecast from Kunkafa’s AI market analysis names a direction, a duration and a level. This weekly report takes every Nasdaq 100 price forecast Kunkafa published from Monday 5 to Friday 9 October at 95% confidence and above, and asks one question of each: inside its own duration, how far did price actually go toward that level?

Kunkafa’s confidence floor

The written figures describe the 95% view. Choose a lower floor to see the same forecasts from a wider net.

Measured as a share of the distance to the forecast level, not as a price change, the 6,257 forecasts that settled came out like this:

  1. went 300% or more16.6%
  2. went 200 to 300%14.0%
  3. went 125 to 200%34.8%
  4. went 100 to 125%, reaching the level28.8%
  5. went 75 to 99%1.5%
  6. went 50 to 75%1.4%
  7. went 25 to 50%1.4%
  8. went under 25%1.5%
of the forecasted distance
        

6,257 forecasts at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration up to 4 days.

Every band is a share of the distance to the forecast level, not a price change: 100% is the level itself, 300% is three times that distance, 50% is halfway there.

Confidence, and what it was worth

Every forecast carries Kunkafa’s confidence. The higher the confidence, the further price tends to go. The rest of this report keeps to 95% and above; here every band from 60% up is shown, so the value of confidence is visible.

Confidence 95% and above6,257 forecasts
        
16.6%300%+
14.0%200–300%
34.8%125–200%
28.8%100–125%
1.5%75–99%
1.4%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
1.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 90 to 95%35,834 forecasts
        
12.0%300%+
12.2%200–300%
32.5%125–200%
31.9%100–125%
2.8%75–99%
2.8%50–75%
2.8%25–50%
3.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 85 to 90%33,143 forecasts
        
6.6%300%+
9.4%200–300%
30.4%125–200%
37.1%100–125%
3.8%75–99%
4.3%50–75%
3.9%25–50%
4.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 80 to 85%24,881 forecasts
        
7.2%300%+
8.4%200–300%
27.0%125–200%
38.9%100–125%
4.5%75–99%
4.5%50–75%
4.6%25–50%
4.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 75 to 80%20,701 forecasts
        
6.0%300%+
8.3%200–300%
26.6%125–200%
39.2%100–125%
4.6%75–99%
5.1%50–75%
5.0%25–50%
5.2%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 70 to 75%21,015 forecasts
        
4.8%300%+
7.0%200–300%
26.5%125–200%
40.0%100–125%
4.6%75–99%
5.1%50–75%
5.7%25–50%
6.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 65 to 70%17,811 forecasts
        
4.9%300%+
7.1%200–300%
24.9%125–200%
40.5%100–125%
5.2%75–99%
5.0%50–75%
5.9%25–50%
6.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Confidence 60 to 65%14,660 forecasts
        
4.3%300%+
6.6%200–300%
23.8%125–200%
41.1%100–125%
5.7%75–99%
6.1%50–75%
6.0%25–50%
6.4%<25%
of the forecasted level

Both directions

A rise is never shown without the fall beside it. Here is each side of the five days.

▲ Could rise3,743 forecasts
        
14.9%300%+
14.4%200–300%
36.4%125–200%
30.0%100–125%
0.9%75–99%
1.1%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
1.3%<25%
of the forecasted level
▼ Could fall2,514 forecasts
        
19.2%300%+
13.4%200–300%
32.5%125–200%
26.9%100–125%
2.5%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
2.0%25–50%
1.7%<25%
of the forecasted level

By duration

Kunkafa answers the same question at many durations, from minutes to 4 days. Each forecast is judged only within its own duration.

Up to 5 minutes642 forecasts
        
62.5%300%+
13.2%200–300%
12.9%125–200%
3.6%100–125%
1.6%75–99%
1.2%50–75%
1.6%25–50%
3.4%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 25 minutes1,046 forecasts
        
32.8%300%+
23.2%200–300%
27.3%125–200%
10.3%100–125%
1.3%75–99%
2.0%50–75%
1.4%25–50%
1.7%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 hour1,005 forecasts
        
13.2%300%+
18.9%200–300%
38.8%125–200%
22.0%100–125%
2.2%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
2.0%25–50%
1.6%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 2 hours273 forecasts
        
19.8%300%+
24.5%200–300%
33.7%125–200%
15.0%100–125%
2.6%75–99%
1.8%50–75%
1.1%25–50%
1.5%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 6 hours1,372 forecasts
        
4.0%300%+
12.5%200–300%
43.8%125–200%
35.4%100–125%
0.8%75–99%
1.0%50–75%
1.5%25–50%
1.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 1 day1,897 forecasts
        
2.9%300%+
6.3%200–300%
38.0%125–200%
47.9%100–125%
1.7%75–99%
1.3%50–75%
1.0%25–50%
0.9%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 4 days22 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
36.4%125–200%
63.6%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level
Up to 5 days0 forecasts
        
0.0%300%+
0.0%200–300%
0.0%125–200%
0.0%100–125%
0.0%75–99%
0.0%50–75%
0.0%25–50%
0.0%<25%
of the forecasted level

Day by day

The same breakdown for each day’s forecasts, Monday to Friday.

Mon 5
578
Tue 6
1,125
Wed 7
1,722
Thu 8
1,494
Fri 9
1,338
300%+200–300%125–200%100–125%75–99%50–75%25–50%<25%
of the forecasted level

What the numbers look like, one forecast at a time

Real forecasts from the week, durations of an hour or more: per band, the one with the widest distance to its level. Prices in index points.

300% of the forecast distance or more · 1,041 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-08 16:05 UTC
Price
30,955.17
Forecasted level
30,987.89
Distance
0.11%
Furthest move
0.34%
Confidence
96%
318% of the forecasted distance

200 to 300% of the forecast distance · 876 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-09 13:35 UTC
Price
30,888.55
Forecasted level
30,850.65
Distance
0.12%
Furthest move
0.33%
Confidence
95%
271% of the forecasted distance

125 to 200% of the forecast distance · 2,180 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-08 18:15 UTC
Price
30,757.50
Forecasted level
30,806.86
Distance
0.16%
Furthest move
0.20%
Confidence
95%
125% of the forecasted distance

100 to 125%, reached the level · 1,801 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 4 days · 2026-10-06 12:00 UTC
Price
31,284.38
Forecasted level
31,199.80
Distance
0.27%
Furthest move
0.29%
Confidence
95%
106% of the forecasted distance

75 to 99% of the forecast distance · 95 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-08 16:25 UTC
Price
30,999.91
Forecasted level
31,039.81
Distance
0.13%
Furthest move
0.10%
Confidence
96%
76% of the forecasted distance

50 to 75% of the forecast distance · 85 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 6 hours · 2026-10-09 14:00 UTC
Price
30,796.45
Forecasted level
30,770.19
Distance
0.09%
Furthest move
0.04%
Confidence
96%
51% of the forecasted distance

25 to 50% of the forecast distance · 87 forecasts

▲ Rise · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-08 14:35 UTC
Price
31,079.18
Forecasted level
31,108.20
Distance
0.09%
Furthest move
0.02%
Confidence
96%
26% of the forecasted distance

Under 25% of the forecast distance · 92 forecasts

▼ Fall · Up to 1 day · 2026-10-08 17:15 UTC
Price
30,598.42
Forecasted level
30,553.70
Distance
0.15%
Furthest move
0.03%
Confidence
96%
23% of the forecasted distance

How this was counted

  • Source: Kunkafa’s outcome of live Nasdaq 100 forecasts, opened between 5 and 9 October 2026, at Kunkafa’s confidence of 95% or higher, both directions, every duration; every section but the confidence breakdown counts this same population.
  • Only settled forecasts are counted: the full duration had elapsed by the time of this report, and for durations beyond two days it had elapsed at least a day before 9 October.
  • “Reached” means price touched the forecast level at some point inside the forecast’s duration; expiring without touching it counts as not reached, whatever happened afterwards.
  • No forecast was removed, re-weighted or selected by outcome.

Kunkafa’s forecasts are probabilities, not prophecy. Past results describe what happened; they do not promise what could happen next. Probability, not advice.

See this week’s Nasdaq 100 forecasts

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