KUNKAFA FORECAST WALKTHROUGH

Understand a Kunkafa forecast

Read the price change, direction, duration and probability together. Then explore how both an upward and a downward level can be reached in the same period.

Gold· 12 days Example

Could Gold go up 1% within 12 days?

84%

Kunkafa’s confidence in reaching it

↓ Down 0.6% in the same period: Kunkafa’s confidence: 70%

Either, both or neither could happen.

Source: the Kunkafa homepage example. This is a static illustration with no market observation or forecast issue timestamp. It is not a current gold forecast.

Teaching example: Gold · 12 days. For other markets and durations, use the live Kunkafa demo.

1. Choose the movement level

SELECTED EXAMPLE · GOLD · 12 DAYS

Up 1%: 84% Kunkafa’s confidence in reaching the level

The event is touching that level at any point within 12 days. It is not a prediction of the closing price or your trade’s profit.

Illustrative price path: Both levelsDaily percentage changes from an indexed starting price. Up 1% is first reached on day 7. The closing change is 0%. Change from the starting price (%)+1%−0.6%Day 0Day 12
Invented teaching path, not gold price history or a model simulation. Lines connect daily observations for illustration.
Touched selected level?
Yes, on day 7
Closed beyond selected level?
No · closes 0%

The same path reaches both levels. Upward and downward touch probabilities therefore do not need to add to 100%.

Choosing a teaching path does not change the example probability. Four illustrations are not four equally likely scenarios.

Check your understanding

Does Kunkafa’s confidence of 84% in touching an upper level mean an 84% probability of profit on any trade?
Can both the upper and lower levels be reached within 12 days?

A trade needs entry, exit and cost assumptions. A level-touch event alone does not specify their order. Read Kunkafa’s forecast definitions and evaluation methodology, or explore current forecasts in the Kunkafa demo.