France 2027: Candidates, Debt and Markets

France’s 2027 presidential election is scheduled for April 18 and May 2. Candidates still need 500 elected-official endorsements and Constitutional Council validation. This November 13 snapshot covers selected economic proposals, alphabetically, rather than complete manifestos or a final ballot list.

Candidates and announced proposals

Gabriel Attal — Renaissance: 100,000 voluntary public-sector departures; teacher pay increases of €200–€500 monthly from 2028.

Raphaël Glucksmann — Place publique/Socialist Party: €200bn climate-investment plan, partly financed by a one-year 5% levy on fortunes above €100m.

Marine Le Pen — National Rally: €140bn savings target by 2032, constitutional fiscal rule and reduced EU contributions.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon — La France insoumise: €1,700 net minimum wage; repeal the pension reform, then retirement at 60; ecological planning.

Édouard Philippe — Horizons: deficit target near 2% of GDP by the mandate’s end, no new taxes for five years and 250,000 fewer public posts through attrition.

Bruno Retailleau — Les Républicains: deficit targets below 3% in 2031 and 2.2% in 2032; spending reductions alongside tax cuts.

Fabien Roussel — Communist Party: about 500,000 public-sector recruits over five years and an immediate 10% civil-service pay-point increase.

Marine Tondelier — Greens: 250,000–350,000 additional public posts and expanded local public-service access.

Éric Zemmour — Reconquête: 800,000 public-post reductions over five years, exempting teaching, policing, military and care staff.

Other declared contenders include David Lisnard, François Ruffin, Bernard Cazeneuve, Delphine Batho, Nathalie Arthaud and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. Alliances and nominations remain subject to change.

Public debt: measured figures and campaign targets

INSEE’s September 29 release put general-government debt at €3,595.5bn, or 119.0% of GDP, at end-June. This includes central government, social-security bodies and local authorities. The September draft financing plan projected €72.9bn of central-government debt-service costs for 2027; that is a budget projection.

Campaign savings and investment totals use different baselines and periods. They are announced targets, not comparable independent estimates of net borrowing. Implementation also depends on budget legislation.

Debt dynamics depend on borrowing, interest costs and nominal economic growth. Lowering the annual deficit does not by itself reduce the outstanding debt stock. The AFT financing plan also includes refinancing maturing bonds, so issuance is not equivalent to new deficit spending.

How the link to markets works

The OFCE’s October 20 study documents how France’s ten-year yield gap with Germany responds to political and fiscal developments. A wider spread means higher French borrowing yields relative to Germany. The ECB’s November 2025 Financial Stability Review identifies potential transmission from sovereign-risk repricing to bank and company funding costs. These describe channels of exposure, not a forecast for any candidate’s victory.

For equities, the CAC 40 includes companies across several industries. Tax, wage, energy and procurement changes affect different businesses through different costs and revenues. The euro also reflects policy across the currency union: euro-area interest rates are set by the ECB’s Governing Council. This report assigns no candidate-specific stock-market or exchange-rate outcome.