By the Kunkafa team
Stock Market Probabilities Explained
Probability, not prophecy. The idea Kunkafa was built on, and how it became a screen: both directions, a probability for every level, the record beside each forecast.
Nasdaq going up forever? That is greed talking. Fear says the opposite, and both can make uncertainty feel like certainty. Kunkafa was built to take neither side.
The finding. A useful forecast names how far, which way, how long it has, and how likely. Anything less is a slogan.
Where Kunkafa stands. Every forecast shows both directions, a probability for every level, and the record of similar forecasts, on one screen.
What to do. Read the level, the duration and the probability together. Then read the other side. Then read the record.
Probability, not prophecy: why Kunkafa exists
Every market has a prophet. Someone always knows where the price is going, and says so with a straight face.
Kunkafa started from a different premise. Nobody knows where a price is going. What can be known is how likely a given move is, and how often it happened before.
So the tagline became a design rule. Anything that sounds like foreknowledge comes off the screen. Anything that lets you check us stays on.
Every forecast in Kunkafa Predictions therefore answers four questions together. How far could the price move, as a percentage of today’s price? Which way? How long does it have? And what is Kunkafa’s confidence that it gets there?
“Gold is going up” fails on three of the four. Up by how much? By when? And how often has that worked before? A 0.2% move and a 12% move are not the same claim.
Both directions, and a probability for every level
The side you asked about comes first. The other side sits right below it, so neither is ever hidden.
The homepage example shows the shape. Could gold go up 1% within 12 days? Kunkafa’s confidence: 84%. Below it, the other side: down 0.6% in the same period, 70%. Either, both or neither could happen. The figures are illustrative.
No single number describes a market, so the app does not print one. The levels sit in a ladder with three columns: change, duration, and Kunkafa’s confidence. Each level carries its own probability, because a small move and a large one are different questions.
A slider sets the longest duration you want to consider, from five minutes up to seven years. You are not choosing which forecast exists. You are choosing how much of it to look at.
Three filters narrow the ladder: how confident, how far, and Both, Up or Down. They shorten the list and never touch the band drawn around the price line. Erasing a level would say the price cannot go there. No forecast has earned the right to say that.
The record sits beside the forecast
A probability you cannot check is a prophecy with a percent sign. So every forecast sits next to a panel called “How similar forecasts performed”.
It counts three things. Forecasts evaluated. How many were confident enough for the filter you set. How many reached the level. You can read it over the last day, 7 days, 30 days or all time.
Two rules keep the panel honest. Under 100 finished examples it gives no rate and says why: “Not enough past examples to estimate performance reliably.” And a rate below 1% prints as “under 1%”, not a decimal the sample cannot support.
Outcomes are named, not scored. Freshness reads “Updated 4 minutes ago”, because a countdown manufactures urgency, and urgency is not information.
Every morning Kunkafa counts how past forecasts ended, on live markets. The result is published at Kunkafa forecast performance results, with the raw figures at /api/stats.json. The rules behind the counts are on how Kunkafa calculates market probabilities. One number is pulled apart in what Kunkafa’s confidence of 70% actually means.
When the honest answer is near 50/50
Most of the time it is, and the app says so. Markets are efficient. Whatever is known is already in the price, so most forecasts sit near 50/50. Kunkafa’s models watch every update and bring you the few that do not.
Behind each forecast sit seventy experts, not one. When they disagree, the probability drops, and you see that too. They were trained on about 10 billion data points of price history across stocks, indices, currencies, commodities and crypto. They were tested on about 2 billion they had never seen.
A 52% is shown as 52%. A tool that always finds a direction is less useful, not more. You can no longer tell its strong answers from its weak ones.
What the screen leaves out on purpose
- Nothing is metered. Looking at a forecast moves no counter, so the app never has a reason to make you hurry.
- No celebration when a level is reached, and no consolation when it is not. Both were always possible; one of them happened.
- No hidden durations. The ones your plan does not open are still listed and still labelled.
- No lone direction anywhere in the product, including alerts, saved outlooks and share cards.
Kunkafa’s confidence is a probability to weigh, not an instruction. See it without an account in the Kunkafa market forecast app, or start your 7-day free trial.
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