How AI estimates the probability of a price move: levels, durations and the record

A run of green days feels like a trend, and a trend feels like permission. That is greed reading a chart. Read the same chart after a bad week and every dip looks like a warning — that is fear, and both can wreck the next decision. Kunkafa does not take a side. It maps the paths, how far each one could run, and the chance of getting there. This is how that chance is estimated, and how you can check it.

A forecast is four things

How far, which way, how long it has, and the chance it gets there. Every forecast in Kunkafa Predictions carries all four, and none of them means much without the other three.

• How far — the move as a change from today’s price, written as a percentage, so it reads the same on a share and on a currency.
• Which way — up or down, each with its own chance. The side you asked about comes first and the other sits one glance below it. Either, both or neither could happen within the period, which is why the two chances are not made to add up to 100.
• How long it has — the duration the move has to happen in. The same distance is a different proposition in an afternoon than it is in a year.
• The chance it gets there — how likely the price is to reach that level within that duration, counted against how often similar forecasts actually did.

Put together, one row reads: could gold go up 1% within 12 days? An 84% chance of reaching it, say the models; and, one line below, a 70% chance of a 0.6% fall in the same period. Nothing in that sentence tells you what to do. It tells you what could happen, and how likely each path is.

Seventy experts, one question each

The chance is not one opinion. Seventy AI experts each look at the same market and answer the same question — how far, and which way — from their own view of the price history. Trained on about 10 billion data points and tested on about 2 billion they had never seen, they were then checked the only way that matters: every stated chance was compared with how often the move actually arrived, and corrected where the two disagreed.

When the experts agree, you see it as a stronger chance. When they disagree, the chance drops, and you see that too. Their disagreement is information rather than noise: a market that seventy views cannot settle is a market where both paths are genuinely open.

How to read the ladder

Across, one row at a time. The ladder has three columns — change, duration, chance — and a single row says one complete thing: the price could move this far, within this long, with this chance. Rows above the current price are the up paths; rows below are the down paths. A market that could rise 4% could also fall, and you cannot weigh one without the other, so the other side is never more than a glance away.

Beside the ladder, the price line carries the same levels drawn as a band around it, so the numbers and the picture are the same forecast rather than two views that might disagree.

Three filters sit above it. Only show forecasts at least this strong keeps the weaker forecasts out of the list. How far it has to go narrows the distances to the ones worth your attention. Both, Up or Down restricts the direction. All three change the list you read.

Every duration, on one screen

The duration control is a ceiling, not a choice between separate charts. Drag it from five minutes up to “up to 7 years”, through Scalping, Day trading, Swing and Investing, and you are raising the longest duration you want to see rather than switching markets.

This matters more than it sounds. A market can lean up over the next hour and down over the next quarter without contradiction, and someone who only ever looks at one length of time will read one of those as the whole truth. Raising the ceiling shows the short paths and the long ones in the same view.

The record, beside every forecast

How similar forecasts performed sits under each one, covering the last day, 7 days, 30 days and all time, with four counts:

• Forecasts evaluated — how many finished and could be counted at all.
• Strong enough for this filter — how many cleared the strength you selected.
• Finished in the forecast direction — how often the price ended the period on the side the forecast leaned.
• Reached the selected movement level — how often it travelled the whole distance, which is the harder question.

Each finished forecast ends in one of a few plain states: it reached the movement level, it passed the movement level, the period ended ahead, the period ended behind, or it is still running. Nothing is scored as a near miss.

Below 100 finished examples the panel refuses to quote a rate at all and says so instead: Not enough past examples to estimate performance reliably. A rate under 1% is written as under 1%, because the gap between 0.4% and 0.9% is not something we can honestly claim to know. Freshness is shown the same way, as Updated 4 minutes ago rather than a countdown, because a clock ticking towards zero manufactures urgency that the market has not asked for.

Why this is a question that can be marked

Because every part of it can be checked against what the market actually did. A level either was reached or it was not. A duration either ran out or it did not. A stated chance can be counted across thousands of finished forecasts and compared with how often the move arrived, and when the two disagree the number is corrected rather than defended. That loop is described on the methodology page, and the running totals are on the results page, updated daily.

A screen that leaned decisively every hour would be describing itself rather than the market. Most of the time the honest answer is that both paths remain open and neither is worth acting on, which is dull to look at and the reason the exceptions are worth noticing. Why that is a feature of markets rather than a shortcoming is worked through in why no one can predict exact stock prices, and what to do with a number you cannot be sure of in understanding uncertainty.

What to look at first

Open a market you already have an opinion about, in the demo, which needs no account, and look for the row that disagrees with you. Note how far the other direction could run and how likely that is, then decide whether your opinion survives it. That is the whole use of the thing.

Nothing is metered, so looking costs nothing and no counter moves while you read; what a plan changes is how many durations, follows and alerts you get, which is set out in the FAQ and priced on the plans section of the home page. Word-by-word definitions of everything on the screen live in the glossary.

Forecast, not advice. For the rational investor: emotion out, scenarios in.