Kunkafa blogProbability, markets and honest AIhttps://kunkafa.com/blog2026-09-07T00:00:00ZKareem FaridProbability, Not Prophecy: what an honest forecast looks likehttps://kunkafa.com/blog/probabilistic-stock-market-forecast-explained2026-02-05T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZProbability, Not Prophecy is a design rule: the other direction always a glance away, a chance for every level, and the record printed beside the forecast.Ten billion data points, seventy experts: how the forecasts are trained and checkedhttps://kunkafa.com/blog/ai-market-forecasts-trained-on-10-billion-data-points2026-02-05T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZTen billion data points and seventy experts: how Kunkafa trains its forecasts, compares stated chances with outcomes, and publishes the record daily.How AI estimates the probability of a price move: levels, durations and the recordhttps://kunkafa.com/blog/how-ai-estimates-the-probability-of-a-price-move2026-02-05T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZHow AI estimates the probability of a price move: a level, a direction, a duration and the chance of reaching it, counted against what markets actually did.Can AI estimate market probabilities? Look at the record, not the claimshttps://kunkafa.com/blog/can-ai-predict-the-stock-market-honest-answer2026-02-05T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZCan AI estimate market probabilities? Judge it by the record: what is counted, where to check it daily, and why most forecasts sit near 50/50.What a 70% chance actually means: AI stock prediction accuracy, explainedhttps://kunkafa.com/blog/ai-stock-prediction-accuracy-what-a-70-percent-chance-means2026-02-05T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZWhat a 70% chance actually means: a rate from finished forecasts, checked against outcomes and corrected. How to judge AI stock prediction accuracy.The art of building a positionhttps://kunkafa.com/blog/how-to-build-a-trading-position-dca-vs-vwap2026-02-04T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZWhy traders scale into a position across several prices instead of one, how the average entry is worked out, and a free tool that plans the orders.Risk management with a forecast in hand: a beginner's guidehttps://kunkafa.com/blog/position-sizing-and-risk-management-with-probabilities2026-01-29T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZPosition sizing, stop losses, the Kelly idea and drawdown, in plain English - and why a chance on a level is never an instruction. Educational, not advice.Why no one can predict exact stock priceshttps://kunkafa.com/blog/why-no-one-can-predict-exact-stock-prices2026-01-29T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZWhy exact price targets cannot be honest, and what replaces them: movement levels with a chance each, both directions, and a record you can check.Anti-gambling design: eight decisions inside Kunkafa Predictionshttps://kunkafa.com/blog/anti-gambling-trading-app-design2026-01-29T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZAnti-gambling design at Kunkafa: eight decisions behind the forecast screen, from the other direction never hidden to hiding a rate when the sample is thin.Why ChatGPT can't predict the stock markethttps://kunkafa.com/blog/can-chatgpt-predict-the-stock-market2026-01-29T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZWhy ChatGPT can't predict the stock market: language models learn words rather than price patterns, and sound certain with nothing grounding the answer.The problem with AI trading apps, and what Kunkafa does insteadhttps://kunkafa.com/blog/the-problem-with-ai-trading-apps2026-01-28T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZThe problem with AI trading apps is the staging, not the maths. What Kunkafa shows instead: both directions, a chance, and the record beside it.Understanding uncertainty: why both outcomes remain possiblehttps://kunkafa.com/blog/understanding-market-uncertainty-both-outcomes-possible2026-01-27T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZWhat a chance on a movement level means, why the other side is always a glance away, and how to check the record before you believe either number.Tabular data: the AI problem nobody talks abouthttps://kunkafa.com/blog/machine-learning-for-tabular-data-financial-markets2026-01-26T00:00:00Z2026-09-07T00:00:00ZTabular data is the AI problem nobody talks about: why forecasting from rows and columns is harder than it looks, and why language models do not solve it.