{ "version": "https://jsonfeed.org/version/1.1", "title": "Kunkafa blog", "home_page_url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog", "feed_url": "https://kunkafa.com/feed.json", "authors": [ { "name": "Kareem Farid", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/about" } ], "items": [ { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/probabilistic-stock-market-forecast-explained", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/probabilistic-stock-market-forecast-explained", "title": "Probability, Not Prophecy: what an honest forecast looks like", "summary": "Probability, Not Prophecy is a design rule: the other direction always a glance away, a chance for every level, and the record printed beside the forecast.", "date_published": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "research", "probability", "uncertainty", "philosophy", "honest-ai" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/ai-market-forecasts-trained-on-10-billion-data-points", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/ai-market-forecasts-trained-on-10-billion-data-points", "title": "Ten billion data points, seventy experts: how the forecasts are trained and checked", "summary": "Ten billion data points and seventy experts: how Kunkafa trains its forecasts, compares stated chances with outcomes, and publishes the record daily.", "date_published": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "research", "training-data", "machine-learning", "tabular-data", "scale" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/how-ai-estimates-the-probability-of-a-price-move", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/how-ai-estimates-the-probability-of-a-price-move", "title": "How AI estimates the probability of a price move: levels, durations and the record", "summary": "How AI estimates the probability of a price move: a level, a direction, a duration and the chance of reaching it, counted against what markets actually did.", "date_published": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "education", "probability", "price-move", "durations" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/can-ai-predict-the-stock-market-honest-answer", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/can-ai-predict-the-stock-market-honest-answer", "title": "Can AI estimate market probabilities? Look at the record, not the claims", "summary": "Can AI estimate market probabilities? Judge it by the record: what is counted, where to check it daily, and why most forecasts sit near 50/50.", "date_published": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "research", "accuracy", "validation", "market-probability", "data" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/ai-stock-prediction-accuracy-what-a-70-percent-chance-means", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/ai-stock-prediction-accuracy-what-a-70-percent-chance-means", "title": "What a 70% chance actually means: AI stock prediction accuracy, explained", "summary": "What a 70% chance actually means: a rate from finished forecasts, checked against outcomes and corrected. How to judge AI stock prediction accuracy.", "date_published": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "education", "accuracy", "calibration", "probability", "beginner-friendly" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/how-to-build-a-trading-position-dca-vs-vwap", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/how-to-build-a-trading-position-dca-vs-vwap", "title": "The art of building a position", "summary": "Why traders scale into a position across several prices instead of one, how the average entry is worked out, and a free tool that plans the orders.", "date_published": "2026-02-04T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "education", "position-building", "DCA", "VWAP", "trading-tools", "beginner-friendly" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/position-sizing-and-risk-management-with-probabilities", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/position-sizing-and-risk-management-with-probabilities", "title": "Risk management with a forecast in hand: a beginner's guide", "summary": "Position sizing, stop losses, the Kelly idea and drawdown, in plain English - and why a chance on a level is never an instruction. Educational, not advice.", "date_published": "2026-01-29T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "education", "risk-management", "beginner-friendly", "plain-english", "getting-started" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/why-no-one-can-predict-exact-stock-prices", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/why-no-one-can-predict-exact-stock-prices", "title": "Why no one can predict exact stock prices", "summary": "Why exact price targets cannot be honest, and what replaces them: movement levels with a chance each, both directions, and a record you can check.", "date_published": "2026-01-29T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "education", "prediction", "mathematics", "probability" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/anti-gambling-trading-app-design", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/anti-gambling-trading-app-design", "title": "Anti-gambling design: eight decisions inside Kunkafa Predictions", "summary": "Anti-gambling design at Kunkafa: eight decisions behind the forecast screen, from the other direction never hidden to hiding a rate when the sample is thin.", "date_published": "2026-01-29T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "ethics", "design", "anti-gambling", "ux" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/can-chatgpt-predict-the-stock-market", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/can-chatgpt-predict-the-stock-market", "title": "Why ChatGPT can't predict the stock market", "summary": "Why ChatGPT can't predict the stock market: language models learn words rather than price patterns, and sound certain with nothing grounding the answer.", "date_published": "2026-01-29T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "llm", "chatgpt", "ai-research", "prediction" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/the-problem-with-ai-trading-apps", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/the-problem-with-ai-trading-apps", "title": "The problem with AI trading apps, and what Kunkafa does instead", "summary": "The problem with AI trading apps is the staging, not the maths. What Kunkafa shows instead: both directions, a chance, and the record beside it.", "date_published": "2026-01-28T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "trading-apps", "ethics", "design", "gambling" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/understanding-market-uncertainty-both-outcomes-possible", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/understanding-market-uncertainty-both-outcomes-possible", "title": "Understanding uncertainty: why both outcomes remain possible", "summary": "What a chance on a movement level means, why the other side is always a glance away, and how to check the record before you believe either number.", "date_published": "2026-01-27T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "education", "uncertainty", "probability", "thinking" ] }, { "id": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/machine-learning-for-tabular-data-financial-markets", "url": "https://kunkafa.com/blog/machine-learning-for-tabular-data-financial-markets", "title": "Tabular data: the AI problem nobody talks about", "summary": "Tabular data is the AI problem nobody talks about: why forecasting from rows and columns is harder than it looks, and why language models do not solve it.", "date_published": "2026-01-26T00:00:00Z", "date_modified": "2026-09-07T00:00:00Z", "tags": [ "ai-research", "tabular-data", "machine-learning", "prediction" ] } ] }